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Transcript

Matthew DeFranks: Sorry for the late start. Was out at Blues practice, and then battled the rain to get back home. Let's get it going now.

Asking for a Friend: Are we seeing the ceilings for both Thomas and Kyrou? Are they 65, 70, 75 point players? After a major focus on drafting the Blues still only have a middling pool of future NHL'ers. This franchise certainly seems destined for mediocrity for the foreseeable future. They are still burdened with difficult contracts on declining veterans, they still have large holes in their NHL roster and prospect pool. They still lack any game changing infusion of talent. On top of that this team has no identity due to its non-cohesive collection of faltering veterans, under-performing prime age players and a prospect pool, that is recently improved, yet still lacks game breaking talent. The Blues are closing in on a top 7 draft pick in this summer's draft. Do the Blues have anything of value to sell at the trade deadline? Does Armstrong make an attempt to restructure the prime age core of this team?Rumors continue to swirl about Bo Byram in Buffalo being available, can Armstrong trade Kyrou plus other assets and begin to build out a formidable top 4 defense(Byram, Parayko, Broberg, need another right handed shot for the top 4) so he can then focus on building out the forwards?

Matthew DeFranks: There's a lot in there, so we'll take it piece by piece.

Matthew DeFranks: Ceilings for Thomas and Kyrou: I still believe that Robert Thomas can be a 100-point player in the NHL. He hasn't done that yet, but he's one of 30 players that have averaged a point per game across the last two seasons. I understand that's a big jump from 82 to 100, but he's produced that despite the fewest power-play points of any of the players in front of him.

Matthew DeFranks: So there's still more to get on the PP, and Thomas' play-driving numbers have always been among the league's best relative to a player's team. So I think he's basically already Sebastian Aho. Can he take another step to become like Brayden Point or Jack Hughes?

Matthew DeFranks: As for Kyrou, I think you're seeing his best overall season right now. He's been more engaged defensively, he's tracking back to recover pucks, he's made smarter plays, and he's produced offensively. Not sure he becomes a 45 or 50-goal scorer, but he's got a 40-goal season in him, I think.

Matthew DeFranks: I think long-term, we can look at the Schenn (three more years at $6.5 million) and Buchnevich (six more years at $8 million) as issues. Faulk (two more at $6.5 million) is less of an issue because it's not as long. With the cap going up, as long as the Blues don't spend stupidly, the cap issues can be alleviated. The only reason they're up at the cap right now is because they used the ~$7M in cap space over the summer to sign Broberg and Holloway to offer sheets.

Matthew DeFranks: The prospect pool is still missing pieces, yes. Dalibor Dvorsky has progressed nicely, and Jimmy Snuggerud is having his best season in college right now, but when can they be relied on to be top players? And what is their output when they are counted on?

Matthew DeFranks: Adam Jiricek is still a project, and Theo Lindstein has shown he can be reliable (high floor) but unremarkable (low ceiling).

Matthew DeFranks: As for Byram, I guess there's the chance that he busts out in a role when he's away from Makar, Toews, Girard, Dahlin, Power, etc. I don't know if he's that next difference maker, though.

Reggie Dunlop: Do you see Samuel Johannesson having a future on the Blues Blueline?

Matthew DeFranks: Not really. I think we've seen this season how far he's down the defensive depth chart. Eleven defensemen have played for the Blues, and Johanesson hasn't really gotten a sniff. It's common for a lot of the older European imports to want to go back home when the NHL dream doesn't come true immediately.

Roy Hobbs 3.0: With an extra spot on the roster, why not call up Hugh McGing, to reward him and give the Thunderbirds a bit of extra motivation? Thanks for your boss coverage, Matteo!

Matthew DeFranks: Love when we can get a Hugh McGing mention in the chat.

Matthew DeFranks: Real talk though, Mackenzie MacEachern has played really well for Springfield since coming back from injury.

Roy Hobbs 3.0: How about MacMac coming up then? Seems that with the flu bug going through the team, an extra forward makes sense. Also seems the team is being "penny wise, pound foolish" with the 21, 22 roster construction, but you'd have a better sense if that's true.

Matthew DeFranks: It's a decent point with the current state of illness on the roster. At practice today, they only had 12 forwards and six defensemen with Joseph sick and Tucker out injured. One more injury, and you're suddenly scrambling.

Barry-Blues Fan in Orlando: Matt, happy hump day from Orlando and the Mouse House. We Blues fans have much to look forward to, we have the goaltending and a much better defense. Next year if the team can improve on average by one more goal more per game then we make the playoffs. Am I too optimistic?

Matthew DeFranks: I think a little too optimistic, but I can see it. The goaltending has been pretty inconsistent this season. Some games, like last night, brilliant. Other games, multiple goals they'd want back. So seeing that round back into form -- somewhere between last year and this year -- would help a ton.

Matthew DeFranks: I'd have to look at the numbers more closely to understand deeper. But jumping a goal a game from one season to the next is very, very hard. Even the Capitals (28th in scoring last year, 2nd this year) are at 0.92 more per game. It's a very high threshold.

Twister18: Considering his age and the teams performance, does it make sense to sell high on Brayden Schenn. I would hate to see him go but I doubt his trade value get higher.

Matthew DeFranks: I think we have adjusted expectations for Brayden Schenn, and that's why we see this season as better than last. Even though he has the exact same points per game (0.56) in each season.

Matthew DeFranks: He's still not performing up to a $6.5 million cap hit and he's got a no-trade clause, so not sure how high his value truly is. Might be a case of a player owning more value to the team he's currently on (emotional centerpiece, captain) than on the next team he would be traded to.

Barry-Blues Fan in Orlando: I think the Blues could get a lot for Schenn. He is a captain so he adds leadership to the room, a guy who will fight and stick up for teammates, and he has won a cup. These kinds of guys don't grow on trees.

Matthew DeFranks: True, the intangibles are there. But he's also a veteran with declining production on a contract with three more years remaining. Maybe the cap increase entices a team, but I don't see it.

Barry-Blues Fan in Orlando: Ok, it appears Schenn will retire a Blue, but he can help Snuggy and Dvorsky learn what it takes to be a pro in the NHL. I would like to see both of these guys in the lineup next season.

Matthew DeFranks: I think that's a real possibility. It might even happen in April when the college season ends, and perhaps the Blues look at some young players once out of playoff contention.

mrr: Thanks for the chat! Has Jake Neighbors regressed, or puck luck just not going his way this year? Where is his ceiling/floor in your opinion?

Matthew DeFranks: Part of it is definitely shooting percentage regression. He was at 18.6% last year and now at 14.0%. Another part is he has fewer shot attempts, fewer shots, fewer expected goals.:

Matthew DeFranks: So scoring at a lower rate, and with less chances to do so results in fewer goals. I still think he slots in fine as a middle-six guy long-term with the ability to be a top-six guy when needed.

Barry-Blues Fan in Orlando: Matt, do you ever talk to Jim Thomas?

Matthew DeFranks: Not regularly, but I'll see him at Centene every now and then when he goes to college games or prospect tournaments with one of his sons.

Barry-Blues Fan in Orlando: I see we had a post earlier today from Roy Hobbs 3.0, this is obviously not the original Roy Hobbs who was suspended for two weeks of chats because he insulted one of the beat writers during a chat. Oh, I miss those days!

Matthew DeFranks: Haven't seen the original Roy Hobbs around these parts in years. Once the Blues got Jakub Vrana, maybe his work here was done.

Matt L: You think the Blues are regretting Busch's extension already? To me it's far too early to say that. He's had a rough year. Hopefully this was the end of the effort to try and put him at center. There's still a really good all around player there and with the cap going up like it's supposed to his salary is not going to be onerous.

Matthew DeFranks: I think in a moment of honesty, I think the Blues would rather have used him as a trade chip than already have him signed to this extension. But that's just a guess. I guess the other part of it is that his trade value wouldn't be as high right now as it was a year ago with another year on his contract and playing better hockey.

Matthew DeFranks: The good news with Buchnevich, as you know, is that there's more to his game when he's not scoring. He's not just a one-trick poiny.

Matthew DeFranks: pony*

Matt L: Do you agree with the following premise: the blues can still make the playoffs if they're goaltending gets white hot but if not, they're toast.

Matthew DeFranks: Yes, I think that's true. But it would have to be consistent levels of top-five goaltending like they had last year. This Blues team in front of the goalies is actually pretty good under Jim Montgomery. He's positively impacted the underlying numbers, but the record hasn't followed. Like the inverse Drew Bannister.

Matt L: This would have to be the best team in NHL history to fail to string 3 wins in a row all season if things continue apace right?

Matthew DeFranks: Let me do do quick research.

Matthew DeFranks: Last year: Columbus (66 points) and Chicago (52) didn't win three in a row.

Matthew DeFranks: 2022-23 was Columbus (59).

Matthew DeFranks: And every team won three in a row in 2021-22. So I'll stop the research there and say that the Blues would be the best team in recent history, yes.

Sctdog: Can the Blues move Leddy or Faulk w/o paying w a draft pick? It seems they need to keep one of the two to fill out next years line up, but two appears redundant. I'm assuming Krug isn't playing.

Matthew DeFranks: Maybe with retention, and I can't see Doug Armstrong doing that for multiple years as would be required for Faulk. Leddy is cheaper and less expensive so maybe, but I'm not certain.

Matt L: Can you remind me the Blues that are playing in the 4 nations? Is it just Binner and Parayko?

Matthew DeFranks: That's it.

Sctdog: any chance they try and manage the roster to get a top 5 pick? A few calls ups for young players, maybe a trade, if Army thinks the team is building thus is their last chance at a high end pick.

Matthew DeFranks: I think it's possible, but that's not Doug Armstrong style. Entering today, though, they are three points from Seattle for the fifth-worst record in the league and six points back of a wild card spot. So we're almost there without intervention. (Yes, this includes different numbers of games played, but for simplicity's sake.)

Matthew DeFranks: We'll call it there. Have a good week everyone!