Bring your Tigers football, basketball and recruiting questions, and talk to Eli Hoff in a live chat at 11 a.m. Thursday. The transcript is included below the chat window.
Transcript
Eli ±á´Ç´Ú´Ú:ÌýGood morning, folks! I feel like I often say this, but what a busy time in the Mizzou athletics universe. From a women's basketball coaching change to the men's basketball seeding race to spring football starting tomorrow... I'm sure y'all will give us plenty to discuss. Let's roll right into your questions.Â
´³´Ç³ó²Ô³¢:ÌýGood morning Eli, Great meeting you before the game Tuesday night at the arena. Portal basketball transfer forecast questions. With the senior departure of key players Grill, Gray, Bates, and Tony, what position(s) will Coach target to fill those voids not only scoring but the boards? Will the youngsters we currently have provide that void? I am not sure we have seen enough PT from the likes Allen, Botang, Barrett, to count on major point production from their game style. What's the priority? Please advise.
±á´Ç´Ú´Ú:ÌýIt was great to meet you, too! One of the really fun parts of the job is when I meet someone who then tells me they're a chatter and subscriber for us. It gives me a chance to thank y'all for your support in person, too, which I enjoy.Â
Anyhow, your question. I think I'd consider there to be four key priorities, essentially trying to replace the build of the players who will be leaving after this season. First is a traditional big man/center. Peyton Marshall should be able to step up here next season, but he'll still be only a sophomore. Experience matters in the SEC, and that has shown with Josh Gray's impact. The Arkansas game really made clear how much he brings to this team. Getting someone of his mold could be a portal priority to pair with Marshall and Burns down low.
Then I would say targeting two shooters — preferably with some high-major experience. That helps with replacing Bates and Grill, who'd played in the Big Ten and Big 12 respectively before MU. Shooting can certainly come from lower levels (see Warrick and Crews), but there's an adjustment period with moving up to the SEC. Given Mizzou's success this season, Gates should be able to get high-level portal guys just fine.
And finally another point guard to back up/play alongside Ant Robinson. Gates seems to like having two point guards on the floor for key stretches, but I suspect the keys to the offense go to Robinson next year. I'd argue the priority with this add needs to be defense and length, like Perkins, but some shooting or scoring chops could be helpful too.Â
That doesn't mean there will only be four portal adds, but those are the priorities in my eyes as far as being able to maintain style and level from this season to next.
senior scramble:Â MIZZOU women's basketball coach is what is good about college athletics. Not getting the results in the SEC. is why a change had to be made. I really respect her giving the athletic director a chance to make an early hire. This will allow the new coach time to go after players in the portal. Also, the new coach might be able to retain the decent players on this year's roster. I hope the investment in the program will be so a high level coach will come to Mizzou. If the inverstment is like it has been then the program will conttinue to struggle. Do you have any idea who is a possible target as the new head coach. Thanks for the chat.
¸é³Ü²õ²õ:ÌýGood morning Eli. What/s the rumor mill saying about Robin Pingeton's replacement?
±á´Ç´Ú´Ú:ÌýI'm lumping these questions together since they're similar and precisely what I've been thinking about this morning.
I think I've been pretty blunt here in echoing seniorscramble's point about investment. That is what will dictate who the next coach is and what the level of potential success is. Whether Mizzou will look to make a splash or is content to hang around the SEC's basement is an open question with a lot of factors. I'm hoping to be able to share Laird Veatch's thoughts on the matter soon with y'all — probably next week.Â
With that still very up in the air, I took a stab at some names this morning:
I really don't know where Veatch will look, since this is his first coaching hire. The word out of Mizzou Arena is that he has known this search was coming (as we all have) and has therefore had plenty of time to think through his options. There's a chance the hire doesn't come until later in March because they're waiting on a team's NCAA Tournament run to wrap up. That's about all I have for now, but like I said, hopefully there will be more to share soon.
Larry M:Â Eli, enjoy your work. Re BB portal, the women,s portal opens Mar 25. Do you expect a new coach to be selected by then. Re investment in the women's program, what does it take attendance wise to get near break even and is that the driving factor.
±á´Ç´Ú´Ú:ÌýMizzou would ideally have one in place for the start of the portal window to be able to maximize that opportunity to re-tool. There's a chance that a postseason run for the future coach prevents that from being possible, but I'm not thinking MU will be poaching a coach who takes their team quite that far. Maybe I'm wrong there, but that's my instinct. Part of Pingeton's decision to leave several weeks early (her contract goes through April 30, she'll depart after the final game) is to let the athletics department get on with the hiring process. I get the sense that she wants to stay in coaching, so that also allows her to be available to seek out another opportunity.Â
As far as breaking even goes: the women's program lost about $4.7 million in FY2024, which included last season. I can't imagine that number has been improving this season. Revenue as a whole for women's basketball was $735,500. Even if that doubles, it's still going to run a deficit. Breaking even would require the women's team to get the same ticket revenue as the men's team, which brought in $4.7 million in ticket sales that year (would expect that to be higher this year). There are of course a lot of other financial variables, but it's unrealistic to see that program even close to breaking even. Returns on any investment won't be monetary and will be in wins. There are NCAA Tournament "units" (aka $$$) starting for women's hoops, but even with that, it's not going to close the gap. I'm sure loss mitigation would be welcome and possible with a more competitive program, though.
Larry M:Â How does BB compare with softball in terms of being a revenue sport. Is SB self sufficient or a drag on the bottom line. I assume any NIL money is outside the budget estimates for these teams. True ?
±á´Ç´Ú´Ú:ÌýHere's the approximate breakdown from FY2024 (so, the 2024 seasons for both baseball and softball): Baseball brought in $308,000 and spent $4.9 million, leading to a deficit of $4.57 million. Softball brought in $753,000 and spend $3.5 million, leading to a deficit of $2.7 million. So both lose money, but softball spends less and makes more than baseball.Â
And yes, NIL has been outside of those figures. But revenue sharing will change that, likely starting with 2025 fall sports. I'm not sure how those numbers will be reported to the NCAA — and consequently become a public record that I can share with you all — but it will be an internal expense.
²Ï³Ü±ð²õ³Ù¾±´Ç²Ô²õ:ÌýI know you might not have had time to follow them closely, but any thoughts on the softball team's not so great 8-8 start?
±á´Ç´Ú´Ú:ÌýI've probably caught the equivalent of one full game so far for Mizzou softball, so I won't pretend to know everything. The general takeaway seems to be that they're missing the seniors. Pitching hasn't quite been what it seemed like it could be, and some of the best bats graduated. Given the strength of the SEC this should still be an NCAA Tournament team, but I'd guess that there will need to be some substantial improvement to be in a position to host a regional again this year.
¶Ù°ä³Ò:ÌýEli: Your colleague Jeff Gordon made the point in column that Mizzou's depth has kept them fresh coming down the stretch and relatively injury free. To me, where the depth really shows up is the with the defense. Guys know they aren't going to be asked to go 35+ minutes, so when they're out they're, there's no holding back. You can see how that non-stop defensive intensity just wears out teams not just for over the course of the game, but even within possessions where every pass is contested and every drive requires all out commitment. It also shows up in the transition pace. The commitment to all out sprint from one end to the other is a also a function of knowing you're not going to be on the court for 10 straight minutes. And then when so many guys can get you a bucket--all of this is what makes Mizzou a really tough out in the tourney.
±á´Ç´Ú´Ú:ÌýI can't remember which player put it this way to me last year – I think it was Tamar Bates — but they enjoy taking the floor knowing that they can play at full speed/intensity and when they're tired, go to the bench with someone fully capable replacing them. That also adds to the freshness point, too. Maybe the rotation is cut down in March (not a guarantee, but possible) and the core guys do play more. If that's the case, they won't have as much wear and tear as other programs that have been down to eight guys for a while now. So much is built here for this team to be dangerous in the postseason.
¶Ù°ä³Ò:ÌýEli: Allow me yet another rant against the rankings and seedings. It's frustrating to see Mizzou continually placed on the 5 line for the tourney when every ranking system has them well within the top 15. Makes no sense. I also continue to be confounded why teams like St. John's (played no one non-con, in a terrible conference) and Arizona (19-9 with a 7-8 quad 1 record) are ranked so highly. I don't see how anyone could say that Mizzou is not one of the 10 best teams in the country with the way they are currently playing. Everyone knows that conferences games tend to be close this time of year, and Mizzou is blowing teams out in their wins. That's just not a thing. And how impressive does that Georgia win look now? And that game wasn't as close as the score. I realize there's still plenty of games left, but I don't like where this is headed with the seeding.
±á´Ç´Ú´Ú:ÌýI get the argument there. The knock on Mizzou is that it has a losing Quad 1 record (not the only team this high up with that) and the most Quad 4 games besides Gonzaga and St. Mary's, who aren't in this seeding discussion. Only having the Kansas win coming out of noncon from a resume standpoint is a limitation — and it's a sign of the echelon we're talking about that I even use the word only to refer to that game. A lot metrics like Mizzou, but bracket-makers don't seem to. The Tigers control their destiny as far as moving up to a 4 seed in both the SEC and NCAA Tournament — win out and that's the case. If they would've beat Arkansas, they could get there or higher even more easily. Same certainly goes for A&M. It's fair to debate the resume and quads and all that, but at the end of the day just plain winning still matters for this team at this point.Â
Todd H:Â Good day to you Eli--hope all is well your way. It would be awesome if Mizzou could win at least 2 of their last 3 games because that would give them their most-ever reg-season conference wins at 12 since they joined the SEC, among other reasons it would be great. But Vandy is such a good team and I'm not feeling good about our chances that we get one of those two needed victories on Saturday.
±á´Ç´Ú´Ú:ÌýHi Todd. Beating Vanderbilt for a second time this season is no guarantee. ÁñÁ«ÊÓƵ were a good team when they came to CoMo, and that hasn't stopped. The 'Dores beat A&M in Reed Arena last night. Mizzou has a path to top four seeding in both tournaments if it wins out — it will leave no doubts about either if it does so. And that certainly seems possible. If this team wants to play at a level that suggests it can be one of the better teams in the postseason, then 2-1 from here on out is the floor.Â
Todd H:Â I had no idea how overall phenomenal Tamar Bates' numbers were until they posted it on TV during the game Tuesday night: something like 50%FG, 40% from 3, 90%FT line(well that part I actually did know about). So my question is, with numbers like that, how is it that he's somehow not a consistent scoring machine and doesn't have a higher ppg average than he does? Also, why did he only play something around 15 min on Tuesday night?
±á´Ç´Ú´Ú:ÌýBates' efficiency is incredible. He was a hair away from a 50-40-90 season last year, too. Part of why he's not a scoring machine is that he isn't a huge volume shooter. He's only taken 10+ shots in 11 of Mizzou's 28 games this season. He's fully capable of hunting shots and getting to his spots, but he is not someone who needs the ball in his hands on every possession to make an impact. When he first came to Missouri, the plan was to have him come off the bench as a spot scorer who didn't need to be the offensive focal point. He's obviously exceeded that, but his style just doesn't include volume. Lately, his minutes have scaled back a bit. I think that's to keep him fresh for the postseason, but I also wonder about it emphasizing defense and rebounding a little bit, especially when he sits for portions of the second half.
´¡²¹°ù´Ç²Ô:ÌýWhen looking at the exploits of Caleb Grill and Tamar Bates, they represent and intriguing pair of scoring and shooting prowess. Looking back at Mizzou teams since 1985, what pair could come closest to matching them?
±á´Ç´Ú´Ú:ÌýFor reference in this answer: Bates is currently 46-111 from 3 this year (41.4%) while Grill is 65-147 (44.2%).
Since the 3-point line came into play for the 87-88 season, we'll start there. There were some good shooters on that team: Derrick Chievous and Lee Coward both finished about 50% from 3, though there wasn't a ton of volume back then. Coward and John McIntyre were on good volume and both above 40% in 89-90, which is the season that this current one is getting compared to the most. Anthony Peeler and Melvin Booker were both above 40% on good volume in 91-92. In 2011-12, Kim English and Marcus Denmon were both about 40% on even better volume, which is probably the closest. English finished 78-170 from 3 (45.9%) and Denmon 99-243 (40.7%). I think that duo gets the nod.
Todd H:Â Do you think in the offseason that the NCAA will look into coming up with some kind of new rules in to reduce the ridiculous length of time it takes to finish so many college basketball games these days? I have one suggestion for them that I actually think they should've done a long time ago: reduce the number of timeouts each team gets from 4 to 3. But that aside, it's crazy how many stoppages in play there are now for the officials to review plays that seem to take bleeping forever to review!
±á´Ç´Ú´Ú:ÌýI'm not sure they will, but I'd be all for it. A&M-Vandy last night took way too long to end when it wasn't °ù±ð²¹±ô±ô²âÌýthat close. Two things need to happen here: A cutdown on the stoppages, and ESPN admitting that college basketball games need to be schedule in 2.5 hour blocks, not two hours. I can't claim credit for this joke, but someone told me that ESPN News should be rebranded to "ESPN Starts" — where you can see the first half of the game you wanted to watch on ESPN! Funny and true.Â
³¾²â²õ³Ù¾±³¦:ÌýI've seen reports today that Jackson Cantwell (the Nixa behemoth) is leaning to Michigan. Do you have any insight on his interests at Mizzou? It would be great to get the best in-state recruit.
±á´Ç´Ú´Ú:ÌýI don't want this to sound overly crass or cynical, but I just can't bring myself to cover the ebbs and flows of one player's recruiting like that — even with as tremendous a prospect as Cantwell. I give props to the people who crystal ball predict where they're going to sign and who get invested in "Top 8 schools" graphics and the like. I'm all for players enjoying the recruitment process, getting attention, etc. You just won't see that stuff in our coverage. Flips and the transfer portal make it even tougher, in my eyes, to justify being worked up about a 17-year-old's thought on where he wants to play football. I sacrifice keeping up with that for the sake of covering what I do write about.
Now, I recognize that Cantwell is different because of his talent and the geography. Mizzou's in the mix along with the blue bloods you'd expect for one of the best, if not the best, high school player in the country. I don't know who's leading for him. I don't think it much matters right this second. I do know that I've seen Cantwell (and his dad, Christian) on the sidelines at quite a few games. His dad was at a basketball game and recognized on the jumbotron. That's all I've got for you now, and all I really will until official visits start, he commits somewhere, etc.
°Õ´Ç³¾³§:ÌýSince the Tigers will be losing most of their outside scoring punch, I am wondering if any of the freshmen are believed to be able to fill the void or if Gates will need to hit the portal to replace all of the outside scoring
±á´Ç´Ú´Ú:ÌýThe portal will probably have to come into play for scoring. As much as there is to like about these freshmen, scoring chops hasn't really been one of those things. That's not to say they couldn't emerge — this is a developmental program fully capable of making that happen — but I'm not counting on it right now. It'll be a big offseason for Annor Boateng and what he can develop into as far as a wing/guard role goes. But in general, I'm eyeing points to arrive via the portal.Â
°ä°ù²¹³¾±è²â°ä°ù²¹³¾±è²¹²Ô±ð°ù¾±²õ:ÌýYo Eli...I knew ARK was a trap game. Away for the Tigers after a big Bama takedown, against a team desperate for a big win to get off the bubble and make the tourney. I was out to dinner and checked once, with Tigers up like 9. I was chiding myself for doubting them, then they blew it down the stretch. Glad they kicked arse v. Carolina to bounce back. What is to be learned from ARK relative to vulnerability in SEC and NCAA Tournies? And that kid on SC that played with the SEC winless Tigers last year, and now has one SEC win this year to show for his transfer. He's clearly bad major, right?Â
±á´Ç´Ú´Ú:ÌýThe lesson from the Arkansas game, to me, is that Mizzou can withstand a lot of things. But what it cannot withstand is the combination of a missing post presence, turnover issues and a cold night for Caleb Grill. The fact that the game was as close as it was makes me think the Tigers are probably fine if only two of those things are in play — they've won a lot of games while playing imperfectly to this point. But there is a point where flaws become too much to overcome. It helped the Hogs that they were well equipped to attack those issues, but there's a lot MU could have done to help itself down in Fayetteville.
It was odd to me that Mizzou fans went after Jordan Butler so much. I get that he transferred out, but he wanted to get back home in South Carolina, where his family is from and his mom played basketball. Dennis Gates certainly didn't seem resentful. He sure has had a tough start to life in the SEC, losing his first, what, 31 league games? But I don't think he's someone fans should be hating for leaving.
±õ²µ´Ç°ù:ÌýRobin ought to be arrested for the amount of money she stole from Mizzou. Good riddance.
±á´Ç´Ú´Ú:ÌýI know most fans will be glad to see a coaching change on the women's hoops front, but by sticking around a year, she saved Mizzou money. Or at least that's why it seems they didn't fire her a year ago — to save on the buyout. If the level of investment in women's basketball remains unchanged, so will the results.
And on that rosy note, we'll call it a chat! Thanks for coming by. Plenty of hoops coverage and some spring football observations coming your way from this weekend. Until next time!
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