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COLUMBIA, Mo. — Bust out your blank brackets, maps and copy of NCAA Tournament seeding principles. It’s time to figure out where Missouri is going.

The No. 14 Tigers, at 21-7 overall and 10-5 in Southeastern Conference play, are well on their way to a decent seed in March Madness.

Where, exactly, Mizzou will land in brackets won’t be determined until March 16 — better known as Selection Sunday. But in the meantime, bracketology gives some clues to MU’s NCAA Tournament prognosis.

The short answer: The Tigers are probably a No. 4 or No. 5 seed, and if that holds true, they’ll play the tournament’s first weekend in Seattle, Denver or Providence, Rhode Island.

Now for the juicy part.

What seed will Mizzou be?

In ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi’s latest projections, MU shapes up as a No. 5 seed. The Tigers are the No. 17 overall team in the field, according to him, which puts them close to a top-four seed but not quite over the hump.

Missouri tends to be ranked higher than 18th in other metrics, though, sitting 14th in The Associated Press poll, 12th in NET ranking and 10th on KenPom, as of Wednesday morning. No single metric directly translates to NCAA Tournament seeding, but that range suggests Mizzou will be a No. 5 seed at worst and, depending on how the final few games of the regular season go, perhaps a No. 4 seed with some wins and help.

While Tuesday’s 30-point win over South Carolina looked great, it didn’t do all that much to help MU’s tournament resume — the Gamecocks have sunk low enough to be considered a Quad 3 opponent inside Mizzou Arena.

And the resume is what seems to be holding bracket predictors like Lunardi back from giving Missouri a better seed.

The Tigers are 6-7 in Quad 1 games, which are matchups against top 30 NET teams at home, top 50 NET teams on neutral floors and top 75 NET teams on the road. The only team projected ahead of MU that has a losing record against Quad 1 opponents is St. John’s, which is 3-4.

Mizzou is 9-7 in games against both Quad 1 and Quad 2 opponents, which envelops home games against top 75 teams and road games against those in the top 135. Arizona and Kentucky — both seeded ahead of the Tigers — are .500 in Quad 1 and 2 matchups, but all of the other high seeds have winning records and double-digit wins in that category.

It’s the bottom of MU’s schedule that also stands out in a challenging way: Only Gonzaga and St. Mary’s have more wins against Quad 4 teams, and they’re not considered top-five material.

And while a No. 4/5 finish looks likely right now, it’s not the ceiling. Missouri closes out the regular season against Kentucky, which would give the Tigers a chance to beat a team currently projected to enter the field ahead of them. Mizzou would also stand to benefit from teams in the No. 3 or 4 seed mix dropping games — like Michigan and Purdue.

Who will Mizzou play?

If Missouri lands a No. 4 seed, it’ll face a No. 13 seed. If the Tigers get a No. 5 seed, then they’ll face a No. 12. Should they make it to the second round, they’d then face the winner of the inverse game: the 5/12 winner plays the 4/13 winner.

The 12 and 13 spots tend to go to mid-major conference champions — like the winner of the Missouri Valley Conference. Lunardi’s latest bracket pits Mizzou against projected Southland Conference winner McNeese State.

Which teams snag those automatic bids out of the mid-major leagues will come down to conference tournaments mostly played the week before the NCAA Tournament begins.

Where will Mizzou play?

If the Tigers land a No. 4 or No. 5 seed, this part is fairly straightforward. There are only three options for the first weekend of the tournament: Seattle, Denver and Providence. Given that two of the four bracket regions send their 4 and 5 seeds to Seattle, that’s the most likely destination based on probability — though Denver is of course closer to Columbia.

The NCAA’s guidelines for the tournament selection committee include two notes about geography that could be relevant. With emphasis added for clarity:

“Teams will remain in or as close to their areas of natural interest as possible. A team moved out of its natural area will be placed in the next closest region to the extent possible. If two teams from the same natural region are in contention for the same bracket position, the team ranked higher in the seed list shall remain in its natural region.“

And:

“To recognize the demonstrated quality of such teams, the committee shall not place teams seeded on the first five lines at a potential ‘home-crowd disadvantage’ in the second round.“

What does that mean for the Tigers? The better the standing they have relative to the three other teams sharing their seed, the more likely they are to land in Denver — though given that two regions play in Seattle, a trip to the Pacific Northwest seems most likely.

Wichita, Kansas, is a first-round site and would be a rather easy road trip for Mizzou fans, but the Tigers aren’t likely to land there — only a No. 2, 3, 6 and 7 seed will play there.

Should Missouri make the Sweet Sixteen, its destination would depend on its region. Host cities for that weekend are: Newark, New Jersey; San Francisco; Atlanta and Indianapolis. The Final Four is in San Antonio, Texas.