Read the full transcript of our weekly Blues chat.
Matthew DeFranks: Good afternoon! Happy Wednesday to Blues fans, and what's there not to be happy about in St. Louis? The Blues have won 10 in a row, they are in the first wild card spot in the Western Conference, and can tie a franchise record with a win on Thursday against the Penguins. They are almost locks to make the playoffs now, and are a team no one wants to face in the first round. Let's get to your questions.
GD: Wow, is this fun or what? Blues are making Stl sports fans happy once again.
Matthew DeFranks: This is something no one really saw coming. If you did, I am outright calling you a liar. When I started doing the math around the 4 Nations break, they needed to go basically 19-6-1 to match Vancouver's record. All they've done since then is go 16-2-2. They can finish the season going 2-3-1, and end with the same amount of points projected at the break. That's an insane run, and winning breeds fun. The players are having fun, and it seems like it's hard not to if you're a Blues fan.
People are also reading…
David J: Enjoying this great run by the Blues. Next year's roster could be stronger still. I assume that the Blues expect Dvorsky to center a line next year. Do you think that Snuggerud will also make the team in 2026? With Bolduc continuing to develop, the third line next year could be pretty good at putting the puck in the net.
Matthew DeFranks: So looking ahead to next year, the Blues will lose Faksa up front. He's a UFA and as good as the fourth line has been, the Blues would be a much deeper team if Oskar Sundqvist is centering the fourth line instead of the third line. Next year becomes a lot more interesting right now. It's the last year of Holloway and Broberg's contracts and they'll be due big raises after that. It's when the Blues will still have Bolduc, Dvorsky and Snuggerud on entry-level contracts. So at that point, you wonder what changes the team is able to make over the summer with limited cap space. Let's go through a sample lineup.
Neighbours-Thomas-Buchnevich
Holloway-Schenn-Kyrou
Bolduc-Dvorsky-Snuggerud
Toropchenko-Sundqvist-Walker
I would imagine given how the Blues coaching staff has used Texier ($2.1M) and Joseph ($2.95M), they would be expendable pieces in order to try and create a little more cap space.
If we pencil in those 12 forwards, plus two extras, and then add seven defensemen, plus Hofer at a cap hit around $3M ... it would give the Blues about $10.6M in cap space.
Of course, that doesn't include Torey Krug's $6.5M cap hit, and that changes the potential math. But if the Blues are able to move money out, the options are available for them to add more proven top-nine talents that doesn't force them to rely on young guys like Dvorsky and Snuggerud.
DenMizzou: Hello, Mr. DeFranks. Thank you for the chat. As a Blues fan, I am thrilled that Montgomery is coaching the Blues. But, I feel bad for Drew Bannister. Do you think he got a fair shake from the Blues? Bannister's strength supposedly was coaching and developing young players, and with the team emphasizing developing their prospects to get back into Stanley Cup competition I would have thought it would be a good fit with Bannister and the Blues. What did I miss? Thank you.
Matthew DeFranks: Fair? Probably not. And good on Drew Bannister for taking the high road when I spoke to him in December about getting fired. He basically said it's part of the business and he's not bitter towards the organization that gave him his start in pro hockey as the head coach of the Springfield Thunderbirds. He's been keeping busy this spring by going around to some junior hockey teams and sort of serving as a coaching consultant for them. He's taken on video projects with other unemployed NHL coaches to study the game as it's currently happening.
As far as what went wrong for him in St. Louis, I think there are a few things. One is obviously Jim Montgomery's availability. I don't think it was a coincidence that Armstrong waited until Boston won a playoff series over the summer to lock in Bannister. If Montgomery got fired in the summer, he probably would have been in St. Louis in the fall. So that's the obvious big one.
The other thing is I wonder how much social capital he had inside the Blues dressing room. He came in a swung his accountability stick. Pavel Buchnevich was benched for a period. Robert Thomas and Jordan Kyrou were benched for a period. Oskar Sundqvist's healthy scratch in favor of Zach Dean was not popular in the dressing room.
I wonder how much that grated on guys, in addition to an outlook that generally was pessimistic. During the preseason, he was imploring for more effort from the guys, and I'm sure some of the veterans were confused by that. It's not that he's not capable of doing the job, but I think there were some things he was able to learn from his first time behind an NHL bench.
Lu: Is there a scenario in which both Dvorsky and Snuggerud dress? Or is it fair to assume one of them dressing indicates a scratch of the other?
Matthew DeFranks: I think there's a scenario, for sure. Dalibor Dvorsky was only in the lineup for his debut because Oskar Sundqvist and Pavel Buchnevich were out. I don't think it's impossible that the Blues try to find a game or two of rest for Sundqvist, who's been walking around after games with ice on both of his knees. If they can get him some rest for the playoffs, having Dvorsky around allows them that option.
That said, I still don't know what their plan will be going forward with either player. It's clear they don't trust Texier. It's clear that they weren't happy with Joseph in Colorado. So that could lead to Snuggerud staying in. But I'm also sure they don't want Dvorsky just sitting around not playing hockey at all.
Johnnynou: Hey Matthew thanks to you and Gordo for the stellar coverage. Snuggs looked pretty good last night - do you expect him to be a regular the rest of the year?
Matthew DeFranks: Not sure, honestly. He can provide some oomph in the top-nine. And Jim Montgomery wanted him out there in important situations (PP, 6 on 5 and he would have been on the ice in overtime for the next shift). So that's telling. But they also used Dvorsky in a similarly sheltered role with PP time, and he hasn't been in the lineup in more than a week now. I guess we'll find out tomorrow.
mrr: thanks for doing the chat!! in this 10 game stretch, which has been most impressive Blues victory? Vancouver, because of the stake? The Canadians, because of how how they were, and the domination of the game? The Avalanche? because...Colorado, MacKinnon and Makar?
Matthew DeFranks: I would go with Colorado. Going into that building against a team that had been playing so well at home. Think about how well the Blues have played at home, and know that the Avs had a home win streak two games longer than St. Louis currently has. They look like an absurdly dangerous team with the additions they made, plus getting Valeri Nichushkin back. And the Blues went in there and turned in a great third period to beat them. Impressive.
If I had to rank all 10 from most impressive to least impressive: at Colorado, Vancouver, Montreal, Minnesota, Detroit, Anaheim, Nashville 1, Nashville 3, Chicago, Nashville 2.
Kerry: I admit I broke a few speed laws getting to practice Monday, but I didn’t need to because the best part of practice was at the end. Watching Neighbours, Bolduc, Dvorsky and Snuggerud running drills together… while Kyrou and Holloway were working at the other end of the ice, was just as exciting as the win streak. The future certainly looks bright. My question is, do the Blues keep Dvorsky up or will he go back down to Springfield?
Matthew DeFranks: I'm not sure I've seen a player spend as much time on the ice as Holloway. He's on the ice for basically every optional practice or morning skate. He's on late after basically every practice, and most of the time he's working with Jordan Kyrou. It's become pretty normal for him to be on the ice like 45 minutes after practice ends.
As for Dvorsky, I do think they like having him around the NHL guys, but it has to get to a point when the Blues need a prospect like him playing actual games, whether that's in the AHL or the NHL.
DCG: Remember when the Blues couldn't muster a three game winning streak?
Matthew DeFranks: What a time! ÁñÁ«ÊÓƵ were the last team in the NHL to win three in a row, and here they are on a 10-game win streak that only one team (Winnipeg) has topped this season. I remember that game in Washington when they won three in a row, and how big a deal it was that they finally got over that hump.
jeff: Who do you favor for the 1st round: Winn or Avs?
Matthew DeFranks: The two most likely first-round opponents for the Blues are Winnipeg and Vegas. If the Blues are in the first wild card spot, they'll likely go to the Pacific Division winner, and right now, the Golden Knights are up five points on the Kings. If the Blues are in the second wild card spot, they'll pull the Central Division winner. That's currently Winnipeg, but could become Dallas if the Stars make a late season push to win the division.
I do think that Winnipeg is probably the best matchup for the Blues, oddly enough. I'm not sold on their team overall and while Connor Hellebuyck is the best goalie in the league this season, I do think the Blues' skaters can match up. Not to mention that Hellebuyck needs to prove people wrong about his playoff performance.
There's not really a path to facing Colorado in the first round. So I've been looking at Winnipeg, Vegas and Dallas as potential first-round matchups.
Sctdog: Post season, do the blues have enough F strength they trade a player for D, do they need more D strength?
Matthew DeFranks: In the offseason? Probably need more depth on defense, particularly if Ryan Suter is gone after this season. You'd have Parayko, Faulk, Fowler, Leddy and Broberg. You can use Tucker and Kessel, but I think the team would feel better with a veteran on the third pair.
Kerry: If Dvorsky does get sent back down, can he be called back up for a playoff run? Or would he have to stay in Springfield until they get knocked out of the playoffs?
Matthew DeFranks: He can be called up. To my knowledge, the Blues have used two of their four available non-emergency post-deadline recalls. And those recalls apply to the player, not to the transaction. So that player can go up and down and still count as one recall instead of counting as one for every time they go up and down. Once the Blues reach four recalls, they would have to wait until Springfield's season is done to bring someone up in non-emergency circumstances.
Jughead: Blues five on five play has been extraordinary during this run. Goaltending as well. I'm still nervous about special teams. WPG and VGK have the two best PPs in the league. What do the stats say about Blues special teams during this run? And, can they hang with those two teams special teams-wise?
Matthew DeFranks: Power plays since the break, ranked by goals for/60 on the PP: Vegas 1, St. Louis 9, Winnipeg 25.
Penalty kills since the break, ranked by goals against/60 on the PK: Winnipeg 8, St. Louis 10, Vegas 27.
So St. Louis is in the middle in both, but in the aggregate probably compares pretty decently against those two teams.
And if you want to narrow the focus to the Blues' 10-game win streak: the St. Louis PK is the best in the NHL at 3.1 goals against per 60, but a lot of that is due to a league-leading .947 save percentage and not exactly chance suppression.
pugger: Where are the Blues without the offer sheets?? Or Fowler for that matter.. 3 moves that I think changed the course of this season.. Thoughts Mr Matt??
Matthew DeFranks: They definitely are not where they are right now. Holloway has the same number of points as Jordan Kyrou this season. Imagine that sort of hole that would be there if Holloway isn't around. Without Parayko, the Blues have used Broberg more and more, and you wonder who eats up those minutes without him around. Leddy? Suter?
Those moves changed the course of this season, and the timeline of the retool. They found NHL ready, young, developed talent at now-cheap prices that fit with their core age group. These are so much more impactful than the Carolina-Montreal offer sheet dance from a few years ago.
Curious: Afternoon Matt: How do the refs. determine that someone should be 'kicked out' of the face off circle on in game puck drops? Thanks
Matthew DeFranks: Straight from the NHL rule book:
Encroachment by any player other than the center into the face-off area prior to the puck being dropped. Players on the perimeter of the face-off circle must keep both skates outside the face-off circle (skate contact with the line is permitted). If a player's skate crosses the line into the face-off circle prior to the drop of the puck, this shall be deemed as a face-off violation. A player's stick may be inside the face-off circle provided there is no physical contact with his opponent or his opponent's stick.
Encroachment by any player into the area between the hash marks on the outer edges of the face-off circle prior to the puck being dropped. Players must also ensure that both of their skates do not cross their respective hash marks. Contact with the line with their skate is permitted. If a player's skate crosses the line into the area between the hash marks prior to the drop of the puck, this shall be deemed as a face-off violation. A player's stick may be inside the area between the hash marks provided there is no physical contact with his opponent or his opponent's stick.
Any physical contact with an opponent prior to the puck beingdropped.
Failure by either center taking the face-off to properly position himself behind the restraining lines or place his stick on the ice (as outlined in Rule 76.4). "Properly position himself behind the restraining lines" shall mean that the center must place his feet on either side of the restraining lines that are parallel to the side boards (contact with the lines is permissible), and the toe of the blade of his skates must not cross over the restraining lines that are perpendicular to the side boards as he approaches the face-off spot.
The blade of the stick must then be placed on the ice (at least the toe of the blade of the stick) in the designated white area of the faceoff spot and must remain there until the puck is dropped.
Now back to me: A lot of the violations you see will be for moving the stick from the white ice before the puck is dropped. You'll see guys go for a puck early, get kicked out and then have a teammate come in.
Phil in Louisville: Army’s offseason is looking great right now, but which of the following recent moves do you think he’d want a do-over on:
Not protecting Dunn, Including Mikkola in the Tarasenko deal, giving away Walman, letting Joshua walk
Matthew DeFranks: I'm going to go with Walman.
Not protecting Dunn was a tougher one because there were two other choices. If they protected Dunn as the fourth defenseman, that would have meant not protecting three other forwards. At the time, it was hard to see protecting Dunn over Parayko, Faulk and Krug. It's not a fun one to look back on, but I can understand it completely in the moment.
I don't think any team thought Mikkola was going to turn into this. He was a third-pairing guy in St. Louis that year, and the Blues believed they could replace him more cheaply with a guy like Tyler Tucker. It should also be noted that what he's doing is a surprise for Florida. You don't sign a defensemen at a $2.5M cap hit expecting him to be playing top-four minutes.
The Joshua one you can live with. He became a depth piece somewhere else. Good for him.
The only solace with the Jake Walman miscalculation is that the Blues were not the team that miscalculated the worst. The Red Wings look like fools for paying a second to dump him, only to watch the Sharks get a first for him. San Jose got a first and a second for 50 games of Jake Walman.
pugger: I love your 'Kid Line' but really, isn't Bolduc emerging as a guy you really need on the 1st/2nd line.. He's more dynamic than Neighbors, more of a threat, including on the PP...Neighbors with Dvorsky and Snuggy would be a great 3rd line
Matthew DeFranks: Yeah, I think the pieces will move in different directions as it evolves. Even game to game, you'll see him swap Thomas and Schenn. Or last night, he switched Neighbours and Bolduc as you're suggesting. I think it'll be fluid. The bigger thing is the Blues actually having more than six top-six caliber players to be able to build a potent third scoring line.
Picklehead: Speaking of Zack Dean, is he a forgotten man now?
Matthew DeFranks: I wouldn't say forgotten. But he's just been hurt all year. It's a tough year to get hurt, too, as Bolduc breaks out and Dvorsky and Snuggerud both make NHL debuts. I'm not writing him off until he comes back from injury, but this was always a potential outcome. Doug Armstrong knows that not every prospect hits, so he took a lot of swings at young players to increase his odds.
pugger: What do you think the plan is for some of the other young guys, Lindstein, Stenberg, etc..? The Blues have some depth there, but no real roster spots with Dvorsky and Snuggerood tucked into the lineup 1st next year.. ARe some of those young guys trade bait maybe for another D man? Or scorer?
Matthew DeFranks: We've seen Doug Armstrong deal from an area of strength before. (Hello, David Rundblad!) And it's something he talks about basically every draft as a reason why it's always best player available. If you need a defenseman, some team out there may need the talented forward they've just drafted. We've seen some teams move young D, and you wonder how many out there are willing to move a young D for forwards. Anaheim? New Jersey? Buffalo?
Matt L: Do you think the Blues will try Dvorsky on a wing? Thomas played wing as a rookie.
Matthew DeFranks: For a player like Dvorsky, I can see that. His concern has always been about his skating and how he can keep up with the NHL speed. It's improved in the AHL, but asking a teenager to go crease to crease is a lot for someone. If you think about centers like Sundqvist or Faksa that can take some defensive load off Dvorsky, it would help. The issue is that the offensive chemistry could be lacking at that point.
Matt L: I hate to be the Debbie downer when they have a 10 game win streak going, but I’ve noticed some back sliding when it comes to the forecheck and driving play. They allowed more odd man rushes last night too. Monty mixed up the lines and I’m wondering if he’s seeing the same thing. They’ve been finding ways to win and that’s great, but we haven’t been at the top of our game for the last few, granted one of those was a tough one at Colo.
Matthew DeFranks: Yeah, last night was the worst odd-man rush night they've had in quite some time. I think they know that they haven't been at their best in certain games. I thought the response in the Montreal game was a good one given how poorly the Blues played in the wins over Chicago and Nashville. So that shows a bit of self-policing and getting back to their game.
Even still, while the game to game performances have been more up and down recently, the overall underlyings are still pretty much close to the top of the league since the break.
Montgomery has a pretty good feel for whether his team played well, and he knows last night wasn't there. He knows those Nashville and Chicago games weren't it. I think he's hoping some rest can put the Blues back into the right form, so we'll see.
Sctdog: You guys hit on this in the podcast, but you can almost see the progression of the team. Next yr Scheen is a 2C sliding to 3C, Dvorsky a 3C sliding to 2C. Buch in the next few goes from 1st line wing to second w Snug/Bolduc sliding up. Stenberg slides into the 3rd line in a year. Does this look like the progression?
Matthew DeFranks: Potentially. I think it always happens a little slower than we expect. Like I don't think Dvorsky finishes training camp as an undisputed 2C, and I'm not sure Bolduc or Snuggerud is a top-line caliber winger right now. But the path forward is at least visible, and it's different than hoping and wondering what it would look like, and how soon that would happen.
Barry-Blues Fan in Orlando: Happy Wednesday to Blues Chatters everywhere and Matt. Thanks to Army we have a a gaggle of young talent almost ready for prime time, envied by many teams in the league, but what do you think of this idea: This summer Steener puts a package together of several of the young guns and a starter to Ottawa for....Brady Thachuk! What say you Matt and my fellow Blue Bleeders?
Matthew DeFranks: I have no doubt that the Blues and all their fans would love Brady Tkachuk. But Ottawa is just starting to turn the corner as an organization, and I can't see them losing a trade for their captain. I don't know what the price would be, but I think it's higher than any of us suspect.
Barry-Blues Fan in Orlando: Matt, what is the plan for Dvorsky and Snuggerud, send them down to Springfield, keep one of them playing, or have them sit in the press box and be around the team to learn what it feels like to be on a team with a crazy long winning streak? If Army/Steen have already disclosed their plans then sorry not paying attention.
Matthew DeFranks: I don't know what the plan is, to be honest. I do think the Blues like the young players being around an environment like this. But they also need those guys playing hockey.
Kerry: I did see a comment on line that said Snuggerud isn’t eligible to go down this season
Matthew DeFranks: Yes, Ryan Smith of Springfield said Snugguerd cannot be sent to the AHL this season. I guess I meant more so whether they're in the lineup or not.
Barry-Blues Fan in Orlando: I have a friend, yes I have friends, that strongly believes the Blues wouldn't be on this winning streak if Parayko was in the lineup....he too often screens the goalie trying to block shots and some shots get thru, resulting in goals. I can see some logic in this, what are your thoughts? Second, who comes out when Colt 55 is healthy? Do you mess with success?
Matthew DeFranks: No, I do not buy that. I think we forgot that Colton Parayko was the best Blues defensemen when he got hurt. It's possible to win without him (in different ways and even games where they didn't play well overall), and then lose when he comes back, and still be a better team with him in the lineup.
I think it's Tyler Tucker that comes out. Could be Nick Leddy, but Tucker's the easy choice for now.
Sctdog: The only real parallel I see w the 2019 is how hard they forecheck. In Jan they used two forechecked but always seemed to be late. Now they are tieing up the other teams D w our D pinching and recycling the puck. Is this a Monty strategy change, a Monty inspiration change or the players just putting in more work? Like 2019 shot suppression is suddenly very good and they are in a win streak.
Matthew DeFranks: Probably all of it? I know the break allowed the coaching staff to look at forechecks from around the league to make changes. It also was sort of the impetus of the "hard work is fun" mantra for the Blues. And those two together have improved what the Blues have been able to do since then. As for 2019, I think the biggest similarity is basically just vibes. The expectations were different. The rosters are different. The age is different. The goalie situation is different. But the win streak brings out the vibes, and the vibes are high.
Barry-Blues Fan in Orlando: Looking back its hard to believe Bannister wouldn't play The Duke (Bolduc) either 5 on 5 or especially the PP. Since the arrival of Monty The Duke has 16 goals and hopefully on this way to 20 as I predicted at the beginning of the season. Any other missteps you can identify from the Bannister era? I can think of one more, you probably can think of several.
Matthew DeFranks: I imagine you're thinking of Pavel Buchnevich at center? I still don't know how much of that was driven by management, especially since that was a topic of conversation with Buchnevich before he signed his contract extension. But he's been exclusively a win since Montgomery took over.
I also know that Buchnevich felt the Blues worked too much on defense during practice, and not enough on the offensive side of the game, so perhaps that contributed to the team's subpar offensive numbers.
I can look at treatment of top players as a misstep, since I think trust was broken early with guys like Thomas after the series of high-profile benchings in the spring.
And I wonder if the Blues have like the way Montgomery has handled the goaltenders. Only once has Binnington started three straight games for St. Louis under Montgomery. That happened four times under Bannister.
Barry-Blues Fan in Orlando: The kid line....The Duke, Dvorsky and Snuggy!
Matthew DeFranks: Maybe. We'll see.
mrr: What is Tyler Tucker's ceiling? prior to this year, I thought he might be Robert Bortuzzo...a big, physical defenseman who doesn't score but makes sure no liberties are taken....now, ?? he has shown much more upside...
Matthew DeFranks: I still think it's around there. He's not a guy that generates a ton, even if Jim Montgomery has mentioned before how much he likes Tucker's offensive mind. If Tucker ends up as Robert Bortuzzo, I'd consider that a win for the Blues.
Dr. Girlfriend: Is Zach Dean basically done? He's missed most of the last two seasons it looks like with injuries.
Matthew DeFranks: Last season, he was relatively healthy and missed only 10 games. But this season, he's missed considerable time with a lower-body injury. I think we'll see what he looks like when he comes back, but this is why a team takes a lot of swings at young players.
Matt L: Speaking of injuries, has Jiricek been playing?
Matthew DeFranks: Yep, has played in all three of Brantford's playoff games.
Dr. Girlfriend: I heard Chris Kerber hypothesis that it was a blessing that Snuggerud didn't sign last year, because it pushed Armstrong to make the offersheet to sign Holloway. Do you agree?
Matthew DeFranks: I hadn't thought of that, but I'm not sure. The circumstances had more to do with who the players were than what the Blues already had on their roster. So I think the Oilers' free agency spree would have still alerted the Blues to a potential to acquire two young players.
pugger: REalistically, what kind of damage can the Blues do in the playoffs...? If they could only get by CO/Vegas/Dallas, they'd have smooth sailing to the Cup.. HA.. !
Matthew DeFranks: It's going to be a gauntlet no matter what. Could be Winnipeg then Dallas/Colorado then Vegas/Edmonton then the Eastern Conference champ. Even if it's Vegas then Edmonton then Winnipeg/Dallas/Colorado, it's tough. My advice is to just enjoy whatever it is.
We'll call it there for today. The queue is empty. Have a good week!
-
-
-
-
-
-