Read the full transcript of Matthew DeFranks' weekly Blues chat.
Transcript
Matthew DeFranks: Good afternoon! We're a few days into the 4 Nations break. The Blues are still 10 days away from playing another game, and they'll be back at practice on the 18th.
GD: Great time for Binnington to showcase that he still has talent in the 4-Nations and then trade him for some future picks.
Matthew DeFranks: It's definitely a big stage for Binnington to show up for. Even if people believe it's an exhibition tournament, Canada still cares, and the players will want to show they deserve to be on the Olympic team next year. For the Blues, if they end up trading Binnington, it changes the scope of their retool/rebuild. Hofer isn't ready to be a No. 1 goalie yet, and without one, I wonder how the Blues' results follow, even if the goaltending this season has been inconsistent.
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Ddwis: Wouldn't it be better for the blues to get a top 10 pick as opposed to just missing the playoffs and getting a middle pick?
Matthew DeFranks: Absolutely. I think the Blues need to turn the corner at some point and make the playoffs again. Teams just don't go from missing, missing, missing to becoming a contender. But this season has become a tall task. Even if they win two-thirds of the rest of the games, it may not be enough to even threaten a playoff push. Right now, going 19-6-1 would get them to 94 points, which is Vancouver's current pace.
Matthew DeFranks: So I think at this point in the season, you start looking big picture instead of hoping for 20 wins in the final 26 games.
Roy Hobbs 3.0: Thunderbirds Watch: who on the team has risen or fallen the most in terms of any possible projection on the Blues, be that as a cup-of-coffee fill-in, or a player destined for regular duty? In effect, has anyone played themselves up a rung or two? Has anyone fallen off the prospects cliff entirely?
Matthew DeFranks: I think Aleksanteri Kaskimaki is the one guy that I think has opened my eyes. Watched a little of him in Finland, but not a ton. Then saw him during the prospect tournament and he flashed. But throughout this season, he's rode shotgun on Dalibor Dvorsky's wing and he's been fast and productive. I can see Kaskimaki being a useful NHLer because he doesn't need to score to have a major impact on the game.
Matthew DeFranks: It's a little unfair to him, but Zach Dean missing half of the season with an injury seems to have hurt his development. This was supposed to be a bubble NHLer, and we've got some runway to get him back to that.
Ddwis: Will missing the playoffs for the 3rd straight year motivate Armstrong to be more aggressive in FA, since they have more cap space than originally thought?
Matthew DeFranks: I could see it happening. His rhetoric has been different recently about looking harder at the core on the Blues and figuring out what to do with it if things don't change. So combine moving a piece out, the cap going up, more motivation and the big pieces that could be available (Rantanen, Marner).
Matthew DeFranks: Personally, I believe the issue with the Blues core is not with the players in it, but that there are simply not enough of them. It's a shallow group at the top, and needs to be deeper -- whether through free agent or trade acquisitions or graduating prospects.
AL: Oh boy. If the blues could land rantanen, that would be quite a coup. ÁñÁ«ÊÓƵ would probably need to subtract a faulk/buchnevic/kyrou type contract to make it happen, but that's guy is a goal scoring machine. And a bonafide blues killer.
Matthew DeFranks: Yeah, it might take something like that to be able to win a bidding war that could be like 7 x $12M-$14M
Matthew DeFranks: Doing some math right now, I would give the Blues around $6M or $7M in cap space for the summer after re-signing Joel Hofer. So to be able to sign a big guy like Rantanen or Marner, some more moves would have to be made.
It's definitely a big stage for Binnington to show up for. Even if people believe it's an exhibition tournament, Canada still cares, and the players will want to show they deserve to be on the Olympic team next year. For the Blues, if they end up trading Binnington, it changes the scope of their retool/rebuild. Hofer isn't ready to be a No. 1 goalie yet, and without one, I wonder how the Blues' results follow, even if the goaltending this season has been inconsistent.: Matthew DeFranks
FLORIDA OBI-WAN.: Thanks for the chat. Just curious if with the Blues recent skid will they look to try and move someone like Faulk? He just seems like a liability on defense and he isn't what I call lighting it up on offense or really making the PP any better. In Saturdays game, he let the winger go right by him and score without touching him. Just seems they could use his spot to play someone else or bring someone up from the minors get a better look at them for next season. Lastly, I like Schenn but I believe his better days are behind him and maybe it's time to trade him and get more playing time for someone else. Oh one last thing, what seems to be the problem with Buchnevich? He just seems lost or unenthusiastic the past few weeks to a month. Have to give kudos to Binnington and Hofer as they have definitely kept this team afloat by their goaltending. Thanks again
It's definitely a big stage for Binnington to show up for. Even if people believe it's an exhibition tournament, Canada still cares, and the players will want to show they deserve to be on the Olympic team next year. For the Blues, if they end up trading Binnington, it changes the scope of their retool/rebuild. Hofer isn't ready to be a No. 1 goalie yet, and without one, I wonder how the Blues' results follow, even if the goaltending this season has been inconsistent.: Matthew DeFranks
Matthew DeFranks: A lot going on here, so we'll go piece by piece.
Matthew DeFranks: In regards to Faulk, I don't see much of a market for him and he has a full no-trade clause with two more years left at $6.5M. Plus, he hasn't been good this season. The offense has dried up compared to his previous seasons.
Matthew DeFranks: If the Blues could move him, they should do it. Clear $6.5M of cap space for two years, and it would clear up a little potential logjam on the back end with Parayko, Fowler, Faulk, Leddy and Krug under contract for next year. Also, assuming that Tucker will be re-signed.
Matthew DeFranks: The issue I see with the Schenn rumors is that the Blues value him so much more than other teams would. Given his playing style, relationships in the room, personality off the ice, that he's the captain, there's plenty of reasons that the Blues should like Schenn more than other teams besides his on-ice production.
Matthew DeFranks: But the other teams don't have that history with him. And so throwing out a bid on an older 45-point player with two more years remaining at $6.5M probably won't line up with what the Blues would want for someone like that.
Matthew DeFranks: The Buchnevich thing is an odd one. I think we can look at his start of the season at center and see the production wasn't there even if people around the Blues liked the way he was playing with his teammates. He's still provided value outside the scoring, but just hasn't seemed to be as creative and confident as he's been in the past. I don't have a good answer for you.
Matthew DeFranks: With the goaltending, I'll disagree with you there. I think they've been below average as a whole this season. Have they had good stretches? Sure. But not enough of them, and certainly not a lot of times where you think they stole a game.
Matthew DeFranks: If you put this year's skaters with last year's goaltending, they're a playoff team no doubt. But this year's goalies have been a step back from last year.
pugger: Hey Matt!! Do you think the rumors about Shenn maybe being potentially on the move are legit? I'd be OK with it... But, I don't see how there's a market for him at this point of his career
Matthew DeFranks: Yeah, touched on it a bit just now, but I think the Blues value him a lot more than other teams. So that would lead me to believe the terms of a trade wouldn't match. But who knows? There's also the fact that Schenn has a no-trade clause and has talked before how much St. Louis has been the best thing for his career. Things change as losses pile up, sure, but this is a guy that follows the franchise history and believes in being a Blue.
Easy Ed: Matt, I agree with your conclusion that the Blues have excellent players, but not enough, they're too thin. Article today quoted an "expert" saying Blues might trade Kyrou and/or Buchnevich. What would be the logic there? Buchy, I can see. Kyrou at his max now, so get the most possible? Kyrou drives their offense quite often. When Kyrou plays with Thomas and Buchy, they've been kind of unstoppable. Please explain.
Matthew DeFranks: I think there's a lot of speculation driven by Nick Kypreos' trade board that listed Buchnevich, Kyrou, Faulk and Schenn on it.
Matthew DeFranks: I guess the thinking would be that if Doug Armstrong is open to changing his core, let's see who we could pull out of St. Louis? I've said it before and it will continue to be true: I think Kyrou and Thomas' contracts will be two of the league's best given their age, production and the cap inflation. So if a team want an asset like that, they better pay big for it.
pugger: After 4 Nations, how do you see the Blues proceeding? Give it a few more weeks to see if they get any traction, or do they start making moves now... I'm for bringing Dvorsky up, putting him on the 2nd line, and see what happens.. 15-20 games, even just being here could be invaluable to him. Put Bolduc with Thomas and Buch...And leave him there for 5, 10 games.. Why not?
Matthew DeFranks: After 4 Nations, there's only two weeks until the trade deadline. That's seven games. Let's say the Blues win all seven. ÁñÁ«ÊÓƵ would still need a 12-6-1 record to finish the season at 94 points. I'm not sure what sitting and waiting will do for the Blues at this point, to be honest.
Matthew DeFranks: This is going to sound silly, but even with the playoffs seemingly out of reach right now, it might still be too early for recalls of the young guys. They'll still feel pressure to put them in the playoffs despite the math.
GoThunder: I'm an Armstrong fan, but almost seems to meddle too much. The Blues were devastated by the JayBou illness and have never recovered. That made keeping Pietrangelo critical. Instead, Army made deal after deal (Faulk, Krug, Scandella, Leddy...) and the team has sank beneath the waves anyway. It seems to me that just keeping Pietro would have solved all of that.
Matthew DeFranks: Yeah, the last few years haven't been Armstrong's finest work, other than plucking Broberg and Holloway. Not really any of their buy-low candidates have worked: Vrana, Kapanen, Hayes, Texier, Joseph, Joseph. The D was a mess, and getting Fowler has helped that. But the Blues need to avoid the mistake they made with Scandella and Leddy by re-signing a veteran D after trading for them.
Blues Travlr: I love the thought of Brayden Schenn staying with the Blues. Not only is he good for teaching Blues hockey in general, but I think he would be great in the Tyler Bozak role, being center while Dvorsky starts on the wing, then switching places when Dvorsky is ready to center a bit. That said ... if the Blues could convince a third party to help, I would love to see a Leafs trade where the third party gets Nick Robertson and Buchinger in exchange for eating $2 mil a year of Schenn's contract, the Leafs get Schenn and future considerations (read Kaskimaki or Pekarczik in late June) for a minor prospect and future considerations back to the Blues, read as Knies in late June. Two questions -- 1. Can future considerations be used this way under the CBA? and 2. Would you do the trade?
Matthew DeFranks: I have never seen future considerations mean anything else besides nothing. Teams don't get anything for future considerations. It's not even mentioned in the CBA.
pugger: 1 year from now, 2/3 thru the 25/26 season... How do the lines look different in your estimation... ?? Thanks MD
Matthew DeFranks: I have no idea. I'll try to get through April first.
Kerry: Randy Karraker spoke to Joey V on his new show this morning & they discussed Buch. Joey said Thomas & Buch need a pure goal scorer on their line (Tarasenko in his prime was the example). Could Dvorsky be the answer to this problem?
Matthew DeFranks: Yeah, I've heard this theory before around the Blues regarding Tarasenko and Kyrou working with those guys. Pure scorers. To me, this sounds more like Jimmy Snuggerud than Dalibor Dvorsky.
pugger: Sorry, I never read the chat except for my own questions!!! ha.. (just kidding).. :)
Matthew DeFranks: That's all that matters haha.
Blues Travlr: The other trade I'd be interested in is Kyrou, Dean and a pick for Couzins, Byram and Greenway. Would the Sabres do that? Would you?
Matthew DeFranks: I think that trade makes the Blues worse? I don't know. You're adding size up front, sure. I'm not sold on Byram on the back end.
pugger: I love your 'realistic' take and not giving the 'pie in the sky' version.. But can Blues management be that realistic? Go into full on 'play the kids mode' (well, as much as you can at this point) and just let the younger guys take the bulk of the minutes?
Matthew DeFranks: Maybe later in the season when they're actually out of the picture. Until they are, the team will continue to push for the playoffs. That's what they showed each of the last two years.
I think there's a lot of speculation driven by Nick Kypreos' trade board that listed Buchnevich, Kyrou, Faulk and Schenn on it.: Matthew DeFranks
Kerry: Matt you haven't been here long enough ... but when Kypreos is mentioned it must always be followed by nasty remarks about him diving on Fuhr in 1996.
Matthew DeFranks: He'll be booed whenever he touches the puck in St. Louis for years like a certain current Flames center.
pugger: Agreed, it's all about valuable assets and having the depth... Let's be honest, the Blues need min 3 more offensive contributors (and hopefully one of them is a top end offensive guy)..And need another top flight D...Right, they have young guys, and hopefully they develop.. But, if they could just go buy 1 top end guy, offense or defense, then that woudl be great..
Matthew DeFranks: True, it's also a way that Doug Armstrong hasn't even built his team. He's been about building strong depth and not relying on one transcendent player. Teams can be built in different ways, but that's just something Armstrong hasn't done. Maybe that's his last big move entering his last summer as Blues GM.
pugger: The Blues CAP looks much sunnier after 2 years when these D guys are done, right? Faulk, Leddy, Krug, etc etc... That, with the Cap going up, they could flex some financial muscle, couldn't they?
Matthew DeFranks: In theory, but every team's cap structure looks better in two years. We'll see what happens in the meantime and what deals the Blues end up signing.
pugger: Well hopefully Dvorsky and Snuggerood are getting plenty of ice time, and maybe 1 or 2 other young guys break thru... Stenberg, etc..
Matthew DeFranks: I think in April, we will be seeing Dvorsky and Snuggerud. After that, it'll be up to them at training camp.
pugger: I was just typing 'Snuggy!!!' Right, Thomas floating passes for him to rip 1 timers.. We need a guy that can pop them in the net, not more creative guys...
Matthew DeFranks: Dvorsky can score, too, just like how Thomas and Buchnevich can score. But Snuggerud can snipe them as a pure shooter and scorer.
pugger: Enough about ME, Matt.. What do YOU think about me?? HA!!!
Matthew DeFranks: I appreciate you showing up every week, ha.
Fell71: What is the real value on Buch and Kyrou at this point? I am sure teams will kick the tires on both if the Blues are willing to sell both low. Is there a package that could get Brady from the Senators? Kyrou, Snug/Dvorsky, Bolduc, and a protected 1st? Not sure that is enough, just not sure on what others gauge the value of Kyrou. I think he excels with a change of scenery.
Matthew DeFranks: I disagree with you on Kyrou. He's having his best all-around season in the NHL. Playing away from the puck, he's been so much better than in previous season and is overall, I think a much better player than he has been.
Matthew DeFranks: So I'm not sure the Blues would be selling low on Kyrou right now. Buchnevich? Yeah, he hasn't been as good as he's been and that extension hasn't even started yet. I can see that his value has tumbled.
Fell71: He has improved but he is still not great. Tons of turnovers in the neutral zone along with trying to make plays at the blue line instead of getting the puck deep that leads to a fast transition. He still has a long way to go!
Matthew DeFranks: Sure, and perhaps I think some of that is a byproduct of just having the puck so much. I think the main frustration I would have are the 6v5 turnovers that lead to empty-netters the other way. But I think the balance of good to bad is a lot more good and some of that is the confidence to try those plays and have it be productive.
Fell71: I also think he has not reached his potential and where the team thought he would be at this point. That is my point on selling low. He does lead the team in goals and points but it is sub par for most leading scorers on team in the league.
Matthew DeFranks: Yeah, I understand that, too. But I think that points to the supporting cast more than anything. I think the core group isn't big enough and that's why you suddenly get a leading scorer that's still 60th in the league in scoring.
pugger: In a few years, Kyrou's (and Thomas's) contracts will look like bargains.. I'll pay 8 mil for a 35-45 goal scorer, playmaker, who once in a while makes bonehead plays.. He's also a creator, doesn't get enough credit for his non shooting skills
Matthew DeFranks: Those long-term contracts that were signed in the flat cap era that extend to the cap inflation era will mostly turn out to be good deals.
Fell71: Do you think the Blues move Binner this year? My thoughts were if Colorado, Vegas, NJ, Toronto, or Edmonton had made that move last year that team would've been the cup favorite. I think that is the same for Toronto and Edmonton still. Colorado/LV/NJ made their goalie moves for better or worse.
Matthew DeFranks: I think the Blues should be listening on almost everyone, and we talked about Binnington a little earlier. If they do trade him, it changes the scope of their rebuild/retool. Not sure that Hofer is ready to be a No. 1 guy yet, and trading Binnington impacts his path.
GoThunder: I sincerely disagree with fan criticism of Kyrou. I truly disliked him and posted on here multiple times that he was a waste of money. Instead he has been the Blues best overall forward all season. He's never going to be a Selke-candidate, but we don't expect that goal scorers. Still, his two-way play has improved significantly, even as he has bounced around various centers. I think we need to forget previous years and look at the data he's given us this year.
Matthew DeFranks: It's still worthwhile to know where a player came from and his evolution, but yeah, this Kyrou isn't the same one as the last couple years, and he's mentioned that to me when we've talked about his 200-foot game feeling more natural this season.
Matthew DeFranks: That's everything. Thanks for stopping by. Enjoy the 4 Nations Face-Off! See you next week.
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