JUPITER, Fla. — My apologies for the delay here. This is a week of lengthier interviews as we prepare for the season preview special section that will reach subscribers in a few weeks. I had a chance to get one of the required interviews -- and that delayed my start to the chat. I hope it pays off with a stronger story down the road. And speaking of road ...
... I'll take the chat on the road, if you'll permit me some patience. Dig into some questions now, and then when it comes time to move up to Port St. Lucie, Florida, I'll resume the chat there during the game.
As always, there will be a transcript of the chat below the window. Questions are not edited for spelling or grammar. They are deleted for vulgarities and threats.
Away we go.
GD: Your prediction on the final standings in the National Central for 2025?
DG: Speaking of the special section, I have to do some predictions for that. I think I'm going with the Reds to win the division. Why not. It will all be a jumble of teams with the top four playing at an 82-win pace for much of the year and then the Pirates. What could tilt the division is who sheds players at the deadline and goes into a dive after it, and it's there were it appears the Reds, with young talents on the rise, might get traction to win the division.
JB: Is Brendan Donovan's spot in the batting order, especially how close he is to the middle of the order, a good indicator of the strength and depth of the Cardinals' offense this year?
DG: That's an interesting way to look at it. I like how you've presented this premise. If Donovan is closer to the middle of the order that implies they have someone putting together a strong OBP to be at the top, and that would be a good indicator for the Cardinals' lineup. It would suggest that they have the ability to stack three OBP hitters ahead of two run-producers, and the more on base the better ahead of Contreras or Arenado. As I think through your question, I'm not sure if it's an indicator of the "depth" of the offense, but it sure says something about the ability to get on base for the top of the order and the run production likely to come before getting to the back half of the lineup.
For me, the indicator of the depth is where Jordan Walker hits, and whether that changes over the course of the season based on his production.
Tackleberry: Are the Cardinals afraid to fully commit to the youth for fear of how bad the win and losses column will look as a result? There are so many sunk costs on their way out on this team yet they seem to be taking priority over the rising talent.
DG: What has stopped them from the complete rebuild is the inability to make trades for whatever reason you want to give. Three players have invoked their no-trade clauses this offseason. Two did from the start, a third famously did to stay with the Cardinals rather than go to the Astros. What the Cardinals could is limited at that point. The full-fledged youth movement ran into a speedbump. And that's where the Cardinals are, parked on that speedbump.
larry harnly: who is the leading candidate to be the backup shortstop?
DG: At last check there are three vying for the spot and the views given them at shortstop in the coming games will tell us who is the leading candidate. Jose Barrero has intrigued the team and has gotten a leader-like amount of time at the position. Look for Jose Fermin and Michael Helman to get more innings there. Oliver Marmol specifically said he intended to make that happen for that trio in the coming games.
Dan Jensen: How many inches should a good slider break?
DG: Sonny Gray has one of the stop sweepers (sweeping sliders) in the game, and his had an average horizontal break of 15.9 inches. Give me one second and I give you a sense of the spectrum of breaks.
I searched for sliders, so this isn't going to include the sweeper, but some elite sliders are Paul Skenes' 14.4-inch break, Chris Sale's 14.9-inch break, Tim Hill's 17.5-inch break, JoJo Romero's is effective at 10.2-inch break. So there's a range of what makes a "good" slider, and it's not just the amount of the break. All of those are effective sliders. There were about 70 pitches who threw the slider regularly and got 10 inches or more of horizontal break and had success with it.
Schmuck: Please let the affiliates know that we are experiencing technical difficulties and will be up ASAP. This is just a test. Had this been a REAL baseball game, you would have been instructed to tune to 1120 AM for local conditions and starting lineups. We now return you to whatever lame crap you were reading before Derrick Goold stiffed you on the chat... #BuyBonds
DG: I did apologize. Yikes.
CH: Can you provide any more details on Jordan Walker's "sprinkler head" injury ? Was there a groundskeeping issue where the sprinkler head was more exposed than normal ? Was there something abnormal with that particular sprinkler head ? Of all the ways for a MLB player to get injured this sure seems like something that is preventable.
DG: Fair question. Let's start here -- because I think when folks read "sprinkler head" they start thinking about Mickey Mantle or some metal cleat catcher just poking out from the ground. Ballparks have advanced quite a bit from there. Walker planted on a sprinkler cover, not an exposed head. You may be familiar with them if you have a below ground system or have seen it at a ballpark or a park. That is what he jammed his foot into and jarred his knee. There was no hesitance in going out to that same position for any of the players a few minutes later. Just Walker landed on it.
Schmuck: If the season ended today, there'd be a 5-way tie...
DG: Correct. All 0-0. No tiebreaker, either.
Unless they go with size of crowds for spring training games? Payrolls? City Connect jersey sales?
Chris: Early in the spring, you alluded that if McGreevy (and Liberatore) both look ready to move into the rotation, the Cardinals could seek to move Matz or Fedde in a late spring trade. Do you have any insights into the current thinking of the FO?
DG: They are open to those conversations. There have been a few teams that are keeping eyes on Matz, for example, and would not be a surprise if Fedde draws some attention as opening day nears and injuries mount for contenders. This is still a possibility, and it's not one the Cardinals will decline -- as they would have in past springs when they're focus was on contending.
Alan: In the event that everything clicks for the Cards this year, and they are in the middle of the playoff hunt at the trade deadline, could they be buyers?
DG: They could, yes.
mrr: DG, thanks for doing these chats!! I'm seeing the Cardinals picked below the Pirates in some national publications. How likely do you think that is to happen?
DG: Not.
The Pirates pitching is real. Could be a strong rotation. Interesting staff. Paul Skenes is a force. But ... I wonder what else is there there.
DCG: Hi Derrick, I think Burleson is a terrific test case for where the Cardinals' commitments lie. He has a track record that suggests a pretty high ceiling in terms of batting average and gap power and contact. He was one of their best hitters last year, even with his second half fade, but they started platooning him. Will they let him face lefties, let him struggle, give him a "long runway," or will they sit him against lefties and compromise his long terms growth for a few extra wins in this non-reset "transition" year?
DG: All fair points. As of right, today, Alec Burleson is an everyday starter for the Cardinals. That has been consistent from the manager and throughout the conversations of spring. He's either the DH or the first baseman, and he's in the lineup everyday to get exactly what you're talking about -- that "runway" (their word) to show what he can do against lefty pitchers and more.
Matt S: Are the Cardinals still open to trading a starter before the season starts? Chances you think that actually happens?
DG: They are. I would not put it at high at the moment. I am eager to see how the next week plays out for some of the teams that are dealing with rotation questions (ahem, New York clubs).
saytreykid: Which senario is more real: Are the Cards waiting to trade Fedde for fear of injury or to maximize his value at the trade deadline?
DG: Ƶ want to maximize that trade.
DCG: So, wait. They've moved from the fence to the speed bump? Is that progress? Regression? Where might they be next? Treading water? Standing on the sidelines? Twiddling their thumbs?
DG: Mixed metaphors. Not even this chat can avoid them.
Craig: Really enjoyed the Saggese article. It seems barring injury he will not get the AB
DG: Thank you, and yeah that seems to be the scenario.
Britt: Cole is getting a 2nd opinion on his elbow, but looks like TJ surgery coming his way. Arenado and Fedde to NY?
DG: From the start, the Yankees have wanted the Cardinals to take on more of the salary, and that was the starting point for talks, not the finishing touches. Does a need for a starter make them more likely to take on the salary, add the starter, and do that without having to offer much in return? Possibly. Yankees are reluctant to raise their payroll, according to reports. They don't have much to offer via trade on the prospect front. So you start to see the outline of a deal where what the Cardinals get is the payroll relief they seek, the Yankees take on the starter and stomach it by saying they'll get more production than the salary, so it balances, and Arenado gets his chance to pursue a championship in pinstripes. It seems just as likely that the Yankees would want to see what a deal looks like for just a starter.
Ben C: Is there any chance the team considers moving Burleson to relieve the logjam on the roster? With Contreras at 1B, Baker mashing, and a packed rotation for DH at-bats, it seems like he has potential to be the odd man out. Will they test the market to see if he could be moved for young pitching?
DG: Moving him ... to another team? No. Ƶ want to play Burleson. He's one of the players specifically mentioned as getting this long look and opportunity.
Bake21: I liked your article today for two reasons. One is that the Cards are commited to McGreevy as a starter. The second thing is they are not against having a pitcher who isn't a power pitcher and pitches to contact. For 16 years we had a HOF worthy pitching coach who preached keep the ball down and pitch to contact. For the last several years the Cardinals have been chansing velo and swing and miss type guys.
DG: Thank you.
Bake21: My question is have the Cardinals changed their tune a bit about pitching philosophy? Not as fixated on velocity and strikeouts?
DG: Not really. The industry hasn't either, and the pitchers themselves haven't much either. They're all pursuing swing and miss and velocity and so on.
That plays, and teams will seek that -- but it's not there in abundance, not in consistent abundance. So, teams have to -- as one person put it to me yesterday -- make the most of what they have, and sometimes that's getting outs with sinkers.
Summer2019: How was the decision made to move Jordan Walker to RF? It appears that has not gone very well considering he still can’t read the ball off the bat. What are the chances for both Koperniak & Saggese making the club.
DG: When he was drafted as a third baseman, evaluators outside of the Cardinals and within the Cardinals saw that he would eventually move to one of the corner outfield spots, with the thinking being left field, if it got that far. The move could have happened much earlier, but it did when the Cardinals acquired Arenado and third base was spoken for. But a move for Walker was already in the conversation. Why RF, though? A few different reasons. A strength in his game is his arm, and that plays in RF. Another reason is that he's said he's more comfortable in right field, and they wanted that comfort to be part of the transition. Another -- that I think we dug in on in a previous chat -- is fewer balls are hit to right field, fewer plays to make.
As for Koperniak and Saggese -- that does not seem to be the most likely scenario. Koperniak has played well. Saggese has played well enough for the Cardinals to seek more playing time for him as an everyday player, not a bench bat.
Chris: Who's your 8 man bullpen if the season started today?
DG: Helsley, Romero, Liberatore, King, Fernandez, Roycroft, Nick Anderson, and Gordon Graceffo with Riley O'Brien and Kyle Leahy on the way soon or pushing from below.
Jim: Any talk of Matz going to the Yankees? Would open the McGreevey spot
DG: In the chat there is, for sure. At last check between the teams, I've not been able to confirm that. It's entirely possible that there will be, pending the Yankees decisions due to the injuries they're facing.
Joliet Dave: Seems Luken Baker will be the odd man out for the roster. Your thoughts?
DG: I don't agree with the premise. He doesn't have to be.
South City Steve: So leadership in "lean" financial years is a secondary concern? Feels similar to not having a robust coaching staff post-Covid. Are we sure they are pulling the right levers and cutting the right costs? Or is it the people pulling the levers and cutting the costs that are in question?
DG: It can be both.
saytreykid: Do Koperniak and Saggese make the team or are they better off playing in Memphis everyday? What about Tekoah - is he set for Memphis?
DG: Tekoah Roby is an early candidate for Memphis, yes. Very impressive spring for the right-hander, and they'd like him to be in that rotation. If not to start the year then for the majority of the year. Saggese more than Koperniak is in the mix for that move for everyday playing time. The way it was framed was better to get a player like Saggese playing regularly than getting five, six at-bats in the majors.
Nate: Hello Derrick, how is the battle for the 5th starter shaping up at this time? If Pallante continues to struggle, is he in real danger of not starting in the rotation (at least in St. Louis) to start the season?
DG: Michael McGreevy and Matthew Liberatore are making a race of it, for sure. They've hurled their way into the consideration. Pallante has a large lead for the role that would have to be covered. Keep that in mind. It would be more than just struggles here, it would be why they struggled or that they think he could help in the bullpen where someone else could not. That kind of thing. McGreevy's performance here will be the most interesting to watch. The manager said he's a starter for them. They've been less specific when it comes to Liberatore or Pallante, and there's past history in relief for both. There are two weeks of games remaining, and often the decision is made for the team. But that McGreevy has them thinking where he fits says a lot about how well he's pitched.
South City Steve: A major inflection point in the DeWitt Era was when he sided with Luhnow over Jocketty back in 2007. The spoils of Luhnow’s work powered this organization for almost a decade, even after he was gone. Without being privy to the “philosophical differences” that divided Mozeliak and Shildt, did it have something to do with the direction of player development and a lack of organizational coaching resources? Did DeWitt back the wrong horse, and could this “reset/rewind/rebuild” have been avoided if DeWitt had listened to Shildt?
DG: It has been widely reported, in the Post-Dispatch and elsewhere, that Shildt had concerns about the player development, and that he specifically referenced the departure of some coaches/advisors as a reason. The public is "privy" to that information because it's been reported in several places.
I don't know if it could have been avoided. I get where you're coming from with the question -- and candidly have recently asked a similar one. The concerns about what was happening were not a surprise. They had been discussed for years. So why so long for a course correction? Shildt's departure certainly contributed to the disruption of continuity, but I don't see it as some tipping point where this would have been avoided. The issue would have remained based on their priorities.
Dan Jensen: What player is the most impressive in spring training?
DG: Tekoah Roby comes to mind. He's on the short list. Chris Roycroft and Ryan Fernandez would be there, too.
Jason: Following off of Joliet Dave's question, where do you see Baker playing this season - at what level, and position - and how do you rate him in terms of being MLB ready?
DG: As of today, he's the right-handed bat off the bench, there for pinch-hit duty and some starts against lefties as the DH.
Joliet Dave: So if you think Baker makes the team, who are your other reserves, barring trades of injuries?
DG: Backup catcher (Herrera or Pages, whoever isn't starting), Siani, Baker, backup shortstop/UT.
(After a drive north on Interstate-95 to Port St. Lucie.)
OK. Back on the beam. Let's chat while this game is going on. Three up, three down for the Cardinals, and the game heads into the Sonny Gray half of the inning.
Ron: Any concern about pallante velo
DG: It's got the eye of the team, yes, and the pitcher. That is something to watch.
openyoureyes: I thought Amazon Prime was going to broadcast the majority of Cards games, but I can't find anything on their website. I think the plan was there would be an extra script to purchase. What is the status? Thank you
DG: FanDuel's app will be available through Amazon Prime. It is an add-on, however. Here is the exact description from FanDuel about its RSN availability: "FanDuel Ƶ Network RSNs will be available via Prime Video as an add on subscription for customers living within each team’s designated geographic area."
MizzouMark: Will your reserve list really work? Assuming the starting eight are Herrera, Contreas, Gorman, Winn, Arenado, Donovan, Nootbar and Walker the that leaves Pages, Burleson, Backup SS/UT and Siani/Scott. There's no room for Baker unless someone gets hurt and you left off the Siana/Scott decision yet to be made.
DG: I didn't leave off Siani. He's mentioned. Hope that helps.
Three up, three down for Gray in 1st.
JHM: The Cardinals are extremely fortunate that they don't have an NBA and NFL team to contend with, because given their incompetence in running this organization and not having a consistent long term plan, most St. Louis sports fans (or any fans for that matter) wouldn't care nearly as much about this rather boring team and would spend their time and money elsewhere.
DG: Some already are. And there isn't an NFL team or NBA team in the city. Some may be choosing to spend their entertainment dollar on other entertainment than sports, and some may have fewer entertainment dollars to spend entirely. It's worth noting that a draw for the Cardinals is their history, the generation to generation fan base, and that has given them a strong following through two different NFL clubs. You may recall the NFL team argued (farcically) that a football team struggled in STL because it's a baseball town.
CrampyCrampaneris: And just like that, Cole is gone to TJ surgery. Who can we get for Matz, Nado, Gorman, and Walker in a big package deal?
DG: I don't see the reason/chances of that.
Will be interesting if Kyle Gibson becomes a Yankee.
Ken: So Derrick is this the year the outfield gets set ? Or does the merry go round continue on ?
DG: Interesting question. My first reaction is that it seems like 2026 is that year, building off of what they learn this year. It sure seems like Victor Scott II is the center fielder when the Cardinals get the outfield "set". That's the trajectory if he continues to improve as he's shown already this spring.
Jack: I'm more excited for this year than I was last year. It's nice to have clear expectations and I'm looking forward to seeing what some of these guys can put together with a full season of opportunities. On that note, I know you don't love comparing players, but I'll ask anyway: What do you see as the best-case scenario ceilings for the young position players? For Gorman and Walker, I'm thinking Kyle Schwarber and perhaps Austin Riley, respectively. What about Saggese and Wetherholt?
DG: Gorman gets compared to Schwarber with the power, but trades the OBP that Schwarber brings even with the low batting average for an arm and ability to play in the field. There are ways to see that comp fit as well as any of them. I don't see the Austin Riley/Walker comparison, sorry. I honestly have a difficult time finding a comp for Walker because of the size, because of the limited body of work, because ... just a lot. I wish I had a good one for you.
I do for JJ Wetherholt.
He gets compared to Alex Bregman as far as upside goes, and there's some real Dustin Pedroia vibes that are going surface in the coming year.
As for Thomas Saggese, one comp I've heard is pretty close to home for him. He's been likened to a right-handed Brendan Donovan with a touch more power potential (doubles, for example).
Bake21: Considering his durability have the Cardinals discussed the possibility of Hence becoming a closer down the road?
DG: They've discussed reliever, and they've put that all on hold to give him a chance to start this season. That decision will be made by the next leadership, and there's an emphasis this year on seeing what he does with a whole year to show health, to stay as a starter.
Peter in Cali: Is there room on the roster for VSII and Baker? Those are the best performers of spring so far, besides Contreras. What would need to happen to allow for that?
DG: There is if Scott wins the CF job, the Cardinals rearrange the roster to make that possible, and there's some incumbent that is not on the team, it appears.
Sue: Good afternoon and thanks for these chats and all your Cardinal coverage. After the end-of-the-year presser, I thought Helsley, Fedde and possibly Matz would be traded. I think I remember you said earlier in the off-season that the Cardinals didn't think they could get enough of a return to justify trading Helsley. Do you think Gray and Contreras staying influenced the decision not to trade any of the players on expiring contracts? That if those players stayed, the front office felt obligated to not reset the way they wanted? Did they even try to engage on talks for Fedde or Matz? I'm just trying to figure out why they didn't do things they could control, after being surprised by what they couldn't (Gray and Contreras invoking their no trade clause.) Thanks as always.
DG: Absolutely that was a major factor. By the time they had the press conference, Mozeliak said he knew what Contreras and Gray were thinking and what he expected to hear from them more formally. He had also already spoken to Arenado and planned to do so again (or at least with his representative). If Contreras and Gray wanted to be moved, the Cardinals would have made that attempt, shed more payroll and gone into a steeper "reset." When they didn't, and the Cardinals did not make the trade of Arenado either the view of how they're doing this year changed, the phrasing changed, and even their expectations of this team changed.
Mets. Mets. Mets.
The Mets have put up three runs on five hits in the second inning against Gray. It would have been four runs already, but thanks to Masyn Winn's arm a runner was thrown out at the plate. That is the second time in as many games that Winn has thrown a runner out as the relay man on a play from the outfield.
Uncle Redbird: With a few veteran starters lingering on the market, is it even less likely that teams would deal a player and take on Matz or Fedde's reasonable contract, given the lesser contracts that Quintana, Lorenzen, etc. have signed?
DG: Well stated, and don't forget the risk aspect. Sign a free agent, the risk is the money. Trade for a pitcher, the risk is the talent given up. The wrinkle worth noting in this market is how few teams are looking to spend or have already spent. If that's the case, then a team will try to make a payroll neutral move, and that's a trade. Not saying that will work for the Cardinals, who want to reduce salary. But it's worth keeping in mind, especially in the case of Fedde.
DCG: How would you assess Weatherholt's spring? I know the homer in the first game caused some overreactions in some quarters, and then he struggled to get hits after that, which causes a different overreaction. What did you see?
DG: Solid spring, for sure. The batting average and collection of hits is what it is. Not going to get wrapped up on the box score for him. He showed improvement in the field, strong strides at shortstop, and he was routinely one of the young players the older players praised for the approach, the work, and the conversations he sought with them. The manager raved about him. Good impression. Good start.
U R ON THE INTERNET BUDDY: This feels like an aimless season within an aimless division. Am I being too pessimistic?
DG: With a whole season to go and all the time we'll spend together in the chat, yeah, probably. There are individual players with clear aims for this season. Maybe that's the plot to follow.
Joliet Dave: Is Luken Baker mostly being showcased. I don’t see a spot for him
DG: I don't get the showcasing thing. It's not like players are a secret. Decisions are made with data. One game in spring or five games in spring aren't going to shape a team much given how decisions are made. There is a place for Baker on the bench.
Juan Soto just hit a ball very hard.
Second homer allowed by Gray.
Tackleberry: I get that Oli is obsessed with Siani but he is 1-for-22 this spring and he also wasn’t hitting once he came back from injury last year. I understand that he is an elite glove but is a one-tool player really a luxury this team should be focused on in a transition year? That said, I fully expect him to make the roster because it fits right in with the mediocrity of the past 2 seasons under Mo
DG: There's a great debate to be had on how the center field position should be utilized. If they go for defense -- and they have evidence that they win when they make decisions for defense -- then Siani is the starter, and things get trickier for the left-handed bats jumbled up because of that. If they go for offense, Nootbaar is the center fielder. But you mention the transition year. And there's probably a good debate to have on if Scott is the center fielder of the future and he's outpaced Class AAA (that would be key) then why not turn the position over to him and let him run with it. Other prospects are getting that look at other positions. And that is the goal of this season, no? Why wait?
I think that would be a fascinating discussion to listen in on, and it would be revealing for a) how the Cardinals think they can win in 2025, b) how much a priority winning in 2025 is, and c) how they think they can get better for 2026.
Peter in Cali: Good morning Derrick! I’ve been (to use one of Mo’s words) bullish on Liberatore’s potential as a starter. Good pitch mix, durability, and pedigree. He’s pitching out of his mind right now. Does he actually have a legitimate chance to make the OD rotation? Who or what factors stand in his way, if his production warrants it? Does he have support amongst the FO and/or on-field managers? I can’t pin-point specific Oli quotes but rather what he’s not saying, but I get the feeling that Oli is pushing him into the bullpen. What’s your take?
DG: Liberatore is pitching well, for sure. He's had a strong spring -- and I totally see where you're coming from with your bullpen comment. That's to be expected somewhat. The manager wants to win. If this were a team talking about pedal-to-metal winning, go for the title, etc., etc., they would be making the clear choice of putting him in the bullpen, at a high leverage spot, and here comes April. He is right there at the tug-of-war between the team the the Cardinals have been and this "transition" to youth that they're pledging. McGreevy is going to start. The level is the question. Graceffo and Liberatore -- it's less clear cut from the manager's comments, and it does seem like the need in the bullpen is part of the decision, not just the future role of the player.
I spoke to Mozeliak more specifically about Liberatore, and he does not see going to the bullpen as a way to limit the lefty's growth into a starter. He saw it differently than, say, Wong on the bench as a second baseman or Matt Adams stuck in a bench spot all those years ago. That's because there are innings (important even) that a reliever can get to grow on the job.
Sue: Hi Derrick. Do you get frustrated when you see national reporters opine about the Cardinals off-season by saying they didn’t trade Gray, Contreras or Arenado? I understand there’s a lot for a national writer to keep up with, but all three had NTC, but that part never seems to be mentioned. Nor the limited number of teams they had to work with for an Arenado trade. And as you’ve said multiple times, it takes 2 teams to make a trade, so I personally don’t think it’s the Cardinals fault they didn’t trade Arenado. I realize the team got caught in the middle, but I’m not so quick to blame the Front Office entirely for the way the off season turned out. Am I crazy to think that? Thanks for taking my question.
DG: I don't get frustrated, no. I really try to do my best not to police coverage elsewhere and stick to what I can report, what I can explain, what I can defend, what I am accountable for. It would be a busy job to do that and also keep score on competitors.
I don't think it's a crazy thought. It does speak to the bind the front office was in and what the motivation was: to cut costs. So, in a way the way you describe cuts quickly to the heart of it -- cutting payroll. Ƶ were limited in how they could do that because two players wanted to stay and the third had a very limited list of traits that he wanted in his next team (and what could be his final team, remember). The front office did paint itself into that corner with the no-trade clauses, two of which it provided. And ownership wanted to cut costs. A front office is expected to find ways to meet the task from ownership and be creative if necessary. The Cardinals were stuck. It makes sense to understand that, but it's also fair to criticize it, question it, and choose not to give it a pass.
Ken: Derrick is it going to take a lot of money , deferred contacts and youth to get back to the World Series? Seems like in 2025 that’s the Magic potion …
DG: For the Cardinals to get back there -- in 2025? It would take a lot going right, peak/breakout years from young players, and did I mention a lot (everything?) going right. For the Cardinals to get back there -- eventually? Yes, it will take a robust player development system, one that provides the stars that the Cardinals are not likely to go into the marketplace to get. The game is pulling toward the majors markets, free agents are gravitating toward the coasts, and the economics of the game are changing in this decade away from what it was in the 2000s, for example. Deferred money? Not sure how much difference that would make. Even that has to be paid.
Peter in Cali: Ryan Fernandez seems like a great pitcher, but I can't exactly pinpoint why. Can you tell me what kind of pitcher he is? He doesn't seem particularly toolsy and nothing really jumps off the page. If he's being considered for a potential Final Boss role (if the team ever moves on from Helsley), what would you say is his super power? What's his finishing move? (Bonus question: What would his sobriquet be?)
DG: His superpower is the break on his fastball, the angle of it, and how it misses bats. He has a pitch -- similar to Roby's fastball, and Anderson's fastball at its peak -- that hums enough that it defies what hitters expect from all their years of dealing with gravity. The ball doesn't actually rise, but it feels like that to a hitter because it doesn't go down like they're eyes tell them it should. Fernandez has that pitch, and it's got elite vertical break that they can measure.
He adds some deception with his delivery that makes his fastball play up, too.
Oh ... his nickname ... Fern. I've heard them call him Fern. Not sure what Mike Maddux would call him. Maybe Bandit? Probably Bandit.
Craig: Derrick, really enjoyed the Saggese article. Hard to see how he gets much playing time this season, at least initially. To me that is a shame b/c his bat seems like one that needs to be seen this season, to get a lot of AB's, to "see what they have" for going forward. Do you seem him starting the season in Memphis?
DG: It's trending that way, so he starts every day.
South City Steve: Not sure if a guy like Bloom ever uses someone like yourself as a sounding board or a gauge, but if you ever get the chance to impart some fan-related wisdom to him please be sure to mention the following: he can't control payroll, he can't accelerate development, and he cannot guarantee wins on day 1, but he can 1000% ingratiate himself to fans and set a tone for his tenure by improving the messaging and communication. And it is a very, very, very low bar to clear, so he can be the Stan Musial of St. Louis PR without trying that hard.
DG: He has not. I don't know if he will on a topic like this. I've been approached by some GMs/POBOs on topics and asked my opinion. I enjoyed the conversation and learned something in each one. Ƶ were with other teams.
Maybe Bloom is a reader of the chat, and you've shared this with him yourself then.
saytreykid: Do you see a scenario where Saggese plays 3rd or 2nd against lefties this year... if not do they send him back to AAA?
DG: He's not going to play ahead of Nolan Arenado at third against lefties. Second is more likely, and that's if there are moves elsewhere.
JB: If Gorman and Walker put together a full season with offensive numbers similar to their 2023 seasons, would the Cardinals consider that a successful season for them?
DG: This might be the question. And ...
I don't know.
It sure doesn't seem like that's enough, though it wouldn't take all that much more for it to be. Not asking for crazy breakout years, but forward upward trends. I go back to the notion of amplification. Haven't seen that. Amplify their talents. That would be improving on 2023, but also showing momentum toward even more in 2026. No stagnation. Amplification.
Ryan: 2 questions. 1) Deep down, do you think MO has convinced himself that this team can win the NLC? 2) If a reset was the priority per every source, and then the openness to discuss avenues to do said reset, why the hesitation to trade Fedde and Helsley. Maximizing their value should not be the priority in this situation. Fair value, yes. But chest beating how well they won the deal does this team no good. Very weird dynamics in play.
DG: 1) I don't believe so, not straight outright. If things go right, break right, he could see a path to do that, but "deep down" he's pragmatic, data-driven, and sees the team for what it is. 2) I'm not sure I agree. The Cardinals need to stockpile talents, and there is an argument that the best return on a pitcher like Helsley is at the trade deadline. See how they Yankees did a quick reboot in 2016 as an example, and while things change in eight years, the need for a dominant reliever at the deadline (hello Phillies!) has not changed. They can get a good return -- and July could bring the fifth overall pick and significant prospect for Helsley. The starting point for him is the comp pick that comes with a qualifying offer. That's the starting point, so go from there and you see how the Cardinals expect a strong return. Fedde is more of a bet that he'll do well, stay healthy, and be in demand at any point in the season that gets a strong return.
DCG: Or, is it an indicator that they are not getting any production from the hitters the expected and they've been forced to put him in the middle as they did last year.
DG: Sure. Could be.
Walt: Good afternoon, I try to be logical and not put much weight on ST but I'm starting to become concerned that Oli is forcing his vision of Winn as a leadoff hitter into being. Someday that may be a reality but, in all likelihood, not this season. Can you offer any insight?
DG: It's worth watching over the coming weeks. They know they have an option in Donovan at leadoff. They know that it could be Nootbaar in that spot. They also know that Winn did well there, is comfortable there, and wants to be there -- plus he's getting at-bats now by being there. We'll see how this unfolds. Sure seems like they're going to go with OBP there when the season starts.
And here Fernandez comes into the game.
I mean Bandit. Here comes Bandit.
imetsatchelpaige: Many thanks for the superb work.
DG: Thank you for the kind words.
imetsatchelpaige: DG, the Cardinals appear to have some very promising young pitching, the best in sometime. We have seen the movie before, where young talent is moved for veteran help. I would hate to lose promising young pitchers, but we also have deep experience in proverbial Fabrege eggs kept past their expiration date. How do see that playing out?
DG: A new front office will be making that decision and it's expected to be a new direction, one that, yes, tightly clutches onto the young, in-house talent, and it may even ride the waves of contending and troughs of retooling as a result. We'll see. But it will be a new group, one hired to build a development machine and one given this year to do so. I imagine they'll come out of this year with some fondness for proving themselves right with the prospects they have.
Moon: McGreevey to Memphis is crazy. How does Miles Mik look? If he hasn't improved greatly, let him go. That would show Card fans that they're really serious about the "reset." It's would bring more fans to the stadium and possibly recoup some of the eaten salary.
DG: Will it bring more fans to the stadium? I find that assertion fascinating, and I don't know if it's right or wrong. I've been asking around about this. Is it a chicken-egg situation -- fans will buy tickets if the Cardinals win, but Cardinals need to spend on free agents to win, and the revenue is less, so they spend less, and then they draw less and the revenue is less -- and that's the spiral I've been writing about this offseason. Do they avoid it with moves like you're describing? Will fans turn out for the youth movement, even if it has difficulty? Or, will the fans turn out for a star that the Cardinals reach to afford, but get paid back by the ticket sales? I really want to explore this topic more.
Moon: I love Nolan A. I've seen in person Brooks Robinson and Mike Schmidt. He's the best ever 3rd baseman. I think he'll have a good year. But, he has to go. It's blocking so many players from getting chances. The Cards need to be willing to eat more salary.
DG: We can agree to disagree.
James: Please start putting box scores in paper, for sure after season starts.
DG: Our coverage is going to look a little different in the newspaper. My hope is that it's better, and that's the goal, and that's what we have been planning for for the past couple of years. We are going to bring some robust and creative coverage to your doorstep. We have plans for something cool to do for readers online. And we've already launched a newsletter that I send straight to your inbox. So, it will be different in print. But it won't be less, and it is my goal to see if it may even be better.
Illinois cardinals: Any talk of how many ABs to give walker and Gorman before they head to AAA if they don't perform at the MLB level?
DG: There has not been, no.
Illinois cardinals: Has there been much talk about trading siani for prospects. If vs II and noot can handle center, both hit better than siani, plus we have a wealth of outfits -- Walker, koperniak, Burleson and Donovan in addition to the three mentioned earlier. If Donovan goes to left, use Gorman or saggese at 2nd. With the way Scott and koperniak are hitting, why send them to the minors, which will happen if siani plays center?
DG: That hasn't been really discussed, and not really a trade you'd see happen. In the situation you described, they'd have Siani as the defensive closer, something they're going to do this season in the field with a good-hands team late.
FLORIDA OBIWAN: I know it’s only spring training, but what the hitters or lack there of so far have shown , doesn’t bode well for us Cardinal fans to even get remotely excited for the start of the season. Any word if the home opener is sold out yet ? And what have u seen with the hitters to say they won’t struggle all year ? Thanks for the chat
DG: The opening day at Busch Stadium is on its way to be a sellout, if it hasn't been already.
The sellout would have happened recently, but as of earlier today it was trending toward a sellout, and that was expected.
I'm waiting to see that. There is a heavy emphasis on situational hitting, and I've been around clubs that benefited greatly from that being the bedrock of their offense. We'll see if that's executed, but that's where they're starting from.
Ed AuBuchon: Is the home opener on track to be sold out?
DG: As mentioned above, it is indeed.
Amir: Thanks for hanging with us for as long as you do on these chat days. Please know it's very much appreciated as a fan, and I look forward to your work throughout the upcoming season
DG: Thank you. It is time to wrap up here from Clover Park. Had to take a break in the chat here to go talk with Sonny Gray and after that the game ended so there was a media availability for the manager. We'll have stories from those interviews in the coming hours or day, depending on how this drive back to Jupiter goes.
Time to hit the road.
Thanks for the patience and the strong questions this Monday. Two weeks till Cardinals are in Memphis on their way north to St. Louis. Opener is nigh.
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