In a perfect world, Cardinals starter Steven Matz will be back after a brief injured-list stint due to what manager Oli Marmol on Friday afternoon called “a protruding disc†in his back.
Forgive me for suggesting you should see it before you believe it.
And forgive me for feeling at least a little compelled to remind folks that the Cardinals, after spending their offseason preaching the importance of a durable rotation, are once again scrambling because of uncertainty about Matz.
“He got an injection and is down for a couple of days,†Marmol said. “Then we will make a decision on what that progression looks like to get him back. But we do think it’s a shorter stint than a long one.â€
Now what?
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“A couple of options,†Marmol said. “We have yet to nail it down.â€
A bullpen game that buys one more tuneup minor league start for Zack Thompson before he gets called back up to the majors seems like perhaps the best move. Thompson secured his shot at next-man-up for the rotation earlier this season and deserves, at least for now, the chance to stick as a starter whether that’s here or in Class-AAA Memphis.
Sem Robberse, acquired in last season’s trade of Jordan Hicks to Toronto, could be an option. Gordon Graceffo, who is not on the 40-man roster, is an intriguing wild-card candidate. Hopefully starter-turned-reliever Matthew Liberatore, who has finally found some solid footing in the bullpen, won’t be asked to shapeshift on the fly.
Roles matter, the Cardinals also have preached this season, which brings us back to where this all begins: Matz. The Cardinals’ perfect-world vision for him continues to not mesh well with reality. The role continues to feel wrong.
Signed to a four-year, $44 million deal entering the 2022 season — that’s the same number of years and dollars Hicks got this offseason from the Giants to start, by the way — Matz now has the highest ERA (4.58) he’s had with any of his three teams.
A total of 131 major league starters have made more starts than Matz’s 33 since joining the Cardinals.
Of the 138 major league starters who have made at least as many starts as Matz has for the Cardinals since his arrival, only seven of them have pitched fewer innings than Matz’s 180.2. And only two have provided fewer quality starts (six innings pitched and three or fewer earned runs allowed) than Matz’s six.
Matz has been limited by injuries — shoulder and knee before this back one. He’s spent some time in the bullpen, which cut into his start count and innings total, but also offered some intriguing flashes of Matz, the reliever. Out of the bullpen in his Cardinals career, Matz has delivered a scoreless appearance nine of 13 times. It’s not a new take to wonder if the Cardinals (and Matz) would be better off if Matz was used as a reliever full time. I made the case for it almost exactly one year ago. His strikeout stuff plays well there. Volatility in relief is common. Comes with the job. Volatility in the rotation? Different story. Comes with compounding problem.
Depending on Matz as a starter keeps getting the Cardinals in trouble. It also keeps them from finding out what the soon to be 33-year-old southpaw could look like weaponized as a reliever. Maybe his contract would wind up being justified in that new role. Performing relievers who can be trusted in leverage situations are worth $11 million a season these days.
Despite a public scoff at the idea of the role change, the Cardinals did explore it this offseason. They decided against it, in part because Matz pitched well in what could best be described as glorified spring training as the clock ran out on a last-place finish. Matz was handled carefully during spring training and limited in pitch count to start this season. Three short but effective starts were followed by an avalanche — 16 runs allowed in 12.2 innings over his last three starts, only one of which lasted five frames. Over his last 65 batters faced, Matz’s opponents have averaged .364 with a .446 on-base percentage and a .618 slugging percentage.
The Cardinals are optimistic Matz’s back will heal quickly enough for him to return soon. For a team that talked a ton about reliability in the rotation, the role continues to feel wrong. It’s May, and Matz has the Cardinals scrambling again.
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