Bring your Tigers football, basketball and recruiting questions, and talk to Eli Hoff in a live chat at 11 a.m. Thursday.
Transcript
Eli ±á´Ç´Ú´Ú:ÌýHello and welcome to another Mizzou chat! As always, we've got plenty to talk about today in the Missouri and college sports realm, so we'll get right to your questions.Â
¸é³Ü²õ²õ:ÌýGood morning, Eli. i noticed former tiger John Tonge is now averaging 18 points per game at Wisconsin. Why did he hit the transfer portal and not stay at Mizzou?
±á´Ç´Ú´Ú:ÌýYes, John Tonje is having quite the season at Wisconsin: 18.5 PPG, 40% from 3, 92% at the line and rebounding well too. He wound up there after a bit of a portal saga: At first, he committed to New Mexico, then flipped from there to Wisconsin.Â
The short answer is that I don't truly know why he left. He'd had a rough season with his leg injury, so maybe he felt he needed a change of scenery. Maybe he looked around at the players around him and decided it would be tough to get the playing time he wanted for his final season. Maybe the compensation wasn't what he wanted. Given that he was at first willing to go down a level to New Mexico, I'm inclined to think playing time and the ability to be a star were factors.Â
²¹°ù²Ô±ð³ú³ú¾±:ÌýDo the advanced analytics exclude or otherwise make adjustments for the Quad 4 blood donor games? I think Mizzou’s defense may be its best I’ve seen in the last 45:years, and is the overshadowed reason for our success, but I’d like to see how it ranks nationally and in the SEC without its statistics in all the meaningless games.
±á´Ç´Ú´Ú:ÌýIt's easier to calculate that than you'd think. CBB Analytics, which is the analytics provider used by me and a couple of other writers on the beat (they're accessible, friendly and give us a decent amount of the data that the team gets from its analytics provider) lets you filter by a custom range of games. For the sake of this, I picked out all the SEC games, plus Memphis, Cal, Kansas and Illinois from the noncon slate.
In that span, Mizzou has an offensive rating of 115.3 points per 100 possessions (85th percentile nationally) and a defensive rating of 109.2 points allowed per 100 possessions (42nd percentile). That's interesting. It seems that the offense pops more than the defense against better opponents, at least in the numbers' eyes.
The defensive rating looks a little worse when you filter by just Quad 1 games. And when you look at the SEC and only SEC games, Mizzou is eighth of the 16 teams in defensive rating during conference play. With a defensive rating of 108 points allowed per 100 possessions in SEC action, the Tigers are in the 50th percentile.
Of course, they stand out in metrics like steal rate and turnover percentage, but that's where the overall defense falls. Though the defensive identity is a key part of this team's style, it really seems to be the offense that is shining brightest.Â
²¹°ù²Ô±ð³ú³ú¾±:ÌýTo the untrained eye, Robinson has really regressed. I assume you would tell us if there was some injury or off-court reason that you could discuss. When HCDG talks about the team being able to be even better than it has been, I think about what this team would look like if he were playing like he did earlier. Luckily, Perkins and Barrett have more than filled the breach.
±á´Ç´Ú´Ú:ÌýYeah. I'm not aware of anything limiting him other than foul trouble, turnovers and some really rough outings of late. I'll ask Dennis Gates about it tomorrow when he meets with reporters, but I think it's pretty evident that the coach is not happy with how Ant Robinson has been playing.
He picked up four fouls in six minutes of action. Most were needless. Robinson keeps getting called for sticking his elbow into defenders too much on drives, and his handsiness on defense is prone to drawing whistles, too. One of the things that Gates and the coaching staff have been trying to work with Robinson on is not going off the rails after one mistake — whether that's a foul, turnover or missed shot. That, to me, is what's compromised right now: As soon as Robinson messes up once, he goes to a bad mental place and that reflects on the floor. Building that mental resilience to make mistakes and stay sharp is a process. It looks like he's going through a tough run of that right now.Â
²¹°ù²Ô±ð³ú³ú¾±:ÌýWhen does spring football practice begin and end? When does the spring portal open and close, and do the portal dates apply to all athletes in all sports?
±á´Ç´Ú´Ú:ÌýI'm expecting (and hoping, for my calendar's sake) to have spring football dates soon. More and more schools have announced their plans, so I'd think Mizzou could let folks know any day now – but I'm not included in the discussions of what their spring activities should look like. If past patterns hold, spring ball would wrap up relatively early in March.
The 10-day football portal window will run from April 16-25. That's for entries, not necessarily commitments. Other sports have their own windows, since they don't always have two like football does. Men's basketball, for example, runs from March 24 to April 22. Some other fall sports have windows from May 1-15.Â
²¹°ù²Ô±ð³ú³ú¾±:Ìýin theory (although anything seems possible these days) could one of those LBs we signed from the portal decide to re-enter the portal when it re-opens now that Newson is returning?
±á´Ç´Ú´Ú:ÌýYou're right that just about anything in terms of player movement seems possible. So yes, in theory, this is possible. I suppose because of this situation it would make an outgoing transfer a little more likely at linebacker than other positions, but it's hard to gauge how likely it actually is.Â
Eli Drinkwitz said at the Music City Bowl that it was tough timing. He was of course happy to welcome Triston Newson back to use the extra year granted by the NCAA to JUCO players, but the Tigers had recruited and signed portal players to replace Newson. They picked MU in part because of the opportunity, I'm sure. Drinkwitz and co. can sell the program's competitive values in keeping them, and depth is always good, but it's yet another occurrence of sloppiness with college sports rules impacting the athletes.Â
Enos Van Halen: Has Kirby Moore’s brother been hired as a NFL Had Coach? If so, have you heard of any concern our OC may be joining him?
±á´Ç´Ú´Ú:ÌýI'm no NFL insider, but it does seem there's real traction between Kellen Moore, Kirby's brother, and the New Orleans Saints to hire Kellen as the head coach there. Seems like that won't be decided until Kellen's season with the Eagles wraps up in the Super Bowl.Â
That's one domino to fall. The next is whether he'd want to hire his brother to his staff, what that would look like and whether Kirby would want to go. I don't know how likely that is. It's probably a non-zero chance, but there are a lot of variables. I haven't heard any concern, necessarily. But given the buzz all parties should have time to think out how they want to handle this and what steps to take if things come together for Kirby to take an NFL assistant job.
²Ñ²¹°ù°ì:ÌýI have a student athlete question for you. How do players who transfer two, three times during their college days stay eligible? My daughter played D-I softball (2014-17 but not at MIzzou) and she was told you have to have so many hours/credits towards your degree each year to be eligible. She switched her major a couple times and had to go to summer school to remain eligible. The school she went to said it was an NCAA rule and not a school rule. With that being said, how can players switch schools and remain eligible when schools will not always accept hours/credits from other schools. Is academics even a thing in college sports anymore?
±á´Ç´Ú´Ú:ÌýYes, it's a thing. The extent to which it's a thing varies sport to sport, of course, but the NCAA has some baseline policies. The two big ones, from my understanding are: Maintaining a 2.0 GPA and getting 20% closer to graduating every year/remaining on pace to finish in five years. Athletes have to be 40% of the way to their degree after two years, 60% after three, etc.Â
That sounds very doable until you factor in the transfers. Even a non-athlete could run into roadblocks with course credits when going to, say, three schools in five years. But they make it work for athletes. There are folks in compliance and academic advising whose job is sorting this out to make transfers possible. I don't know how they logistically pull that off or how courses translate, but there's evidently a way. My inclination is that added summer courses might be part of the keeping-pace equation.
Evil Calvin:Â 19-29 free throws......'nuff said
±á´Ç´Ú´Ú:ÌýWhat might be the most fascinating stat with this Missouri team: Mizzou is 2nd in the nation in free throw rate (getting to the line) but 195th in making free throws. The Tigers put a lot of points on the table via the free-throw line but also leave a lot of points on the table that way.
µþ´Ç²õ³Ù´Ç²Ô.²Ñ¾±³ú³ú´Ç³Ü:ÌýDo we have any other good bball recruits for this coming season in men’s bball. You would think our success this year parlays into some more players (I know we got two so far)
±á´Ç´Ú´Ú:ÌýJust the two. Yesterday was the second signing day and there weren't any additions (because Mizzou wasn't going for any). Success this year will have a more immediate impact in the transfer portal, though it could help with some future recruiting classes too.
µþ´Ç²õ³Ù´Ç²Ô.²Ñ¾±³ú³ú´Ç³Ü:ÌýWho would you target if pingleton doesn’t come back
±á´Ç´Ú´Ú:ÌýMolly Miller at Grand Canyon is from Springfield. Charmin Smith has built something impressive at Cal, and she's from St. Louis. She has WNBA coaching experience, too. Mark Kellogg has been a quick rise through the ranks and is now at West Virginia — he once coached Northwest Missouri State. But the real answer is that it depends on the level of investment from Mizzou. That will determine the caliber of coach who's willing to come in and rebuild this program. Poaching a high-major head coach will be tough if the investment isn't there.
¶Ù°ä³Ò:ÌýEli: I have to admit that I was wrong about a lot of things with this Tiger team, most of which centered around my belief that the 3-point shooting wasn't there. I had no sense (did anyone?) that Grill, a career 35% shooter, would become a near 50% shooter from three. Huge. I wasn't sure the defense would be there based on the early season where the team seemed to coast on D a lot (I can't forget Howard basically getting any 3 it wanted), but the defense has really turned it up. And I credit Gates for his gutsiness--he believes in his players. Three times now he has given Barrett important minutes against tough SEC teams on the road, and the kid hasn't flinched. I think he's also found a way to use Gray well, given his offensive limitations. So, more kudos. The Tenn. game stings because a win within their grasp almost surely gives them the double bye and secures a top 4 seed in the tourney. But there is still time. Overall, this is a tough, tough team that I don't think anyone wants to play come tourney time. On the negative . . . I'll put those in the next entry.
On the negative, what's happening with Mitchell is what I feared. Against any size, he really struggles. I'm stunned he spent two years at Duke and came to Mizzou so unpolished, but he has no go-to moves around the basket. Teams have figured out that if their size is not very athletic, they just play off of him and let him dribble himself into traffic and they'll take the occasional good kick out pass from him as a tradeoff. Athletic bigs mean Mitchell has no hope. He's 4 for 20 from the field in the past four games. The other thing that concerns me is they still get bogged down with the dribble on offense, and so much it is about bad/sloppy play away from the ball. Against pressure, they don't screen away from the ball well to get guys open and get the ball moving. Thus, the scoring droughts. But I will say this: I don't think there's a team in the country they can't beat. So, the tourney will be what it always is: matchups and shooting.
±á´Ç´Ú´Ú:ÌýThe hope was that Caleb Grill could shoot well, but I don't think anybody in their right mind thought he could do this. It's incredible what he's done this season, especially given that he'd been out for almost a year going into the campaign and now has missed a month without throwing off his rhythm. The Tigers really do seem capable of playing up to their competition, which does make them dangerous in a tournament setting. You're right that Gates fully trusts his players, too. That's what makes yanking Robinson last night stand out so much.
I'd thought Mitchell's finishing around the rim could be a liability as the season wore on, and it seems that's in the scouting report now. If you can avoid fouling him at the rim, you can defend those possessions well. The half-court offense really perks up with Grill out there because of his gravity and the cuts he makes. Watch his angles and timing as he moves around off-ball, it's really something.
I just come back to the depth of this team and that they only need 2-3 guys to be firing to have a chance at winning a game. It still feels like, as Gates has said, they can be better with more players clicking on a given night. That nature of this team makes me agree that they're fully capable of beating anyone in the nation.
µþ´Ç²õ³Ù´Ç²Ô.²Ñ¾±³ú³ú´Ç³Ü:ÌýWho besides membou and Luther get drafted. does membou go in the first round ?
Hoff:Â Johnny Walker Jr. and Theo Wease would be the other potential draft picks, though I admit I haven't paid close attention to where their stock puts them in the day 2/3/UDFA mix. Yes, I think Membou goes in the first round. I have yet to have anyone call me delusional for thinking he might get taken before Burden.Â
¶Ù´Ç´Ç»å±ô±ð»å²¹»å:ÌýHey Eli, enjoy your work and word usage ... was happy to see Warrick back and contributing last night. I'd wondered why he didn't see the court in recent games, given (as pointed out by the commentators last night) that he's in very elite company (top five) for career scoring. He seems to be able to knock them down from outside and take the ball to the hoop as well. Your thoughts?
±á´Ç´Ú´Ú:ÌýHe's certainly a scorer and excels in that microwave role when the team needs somebody to come in and create points. There's a defensive drop off when Warrick is on the floor, though: Teams score about 6.9 points per 100 possessions more when he's in the game vs. out of it. It's not a perfect use of the stat, but the defense becomes about 6.9% worse with him in the game. The offense, however, gets 11.8% better — he's got the highest offensive on/off differential on the team. So that's the dilemma for Gates when considering whether to sub him in. Do you need a bucket at the expense of a couple that are perhaps conceded by Warrick's presence? Sometimes the answer will be yes, sometimes no.
µþ´Ç²õ³Ù´Ç²Ô.²Ñ¾±³ú³ú´Ç³Ü:ÌýWho is the most entertaining player and coach that you have interviewed
±á´Ç´Ú´Ú:ÌýDawn Staley is fun to interview and great with media. Drinkwitz has his moments. But cornerbacks coach Al Pogue takes the prize here, he's a blast to interview. In terms of players, Darius Robinson was always good-natured, funny and insightful.Â
´³´Ç³ó²Ô³¢:ÌýGood afternoon, Couple of issues: 1. Because of rules changes, the refs stop the games a few times to review potential flagrant fouls, etc. Why don't they review questionable fouls challenged by a coach. Last night the foul late on Theo was a bad call and impacted the outcome with about 2 minutes left. 2. The free throw shooting is alarming. Now we seem to can't count on Tamar and Tony to deliver down the stretch. What gives? More games will be lost of we can't hit FT. Please advise.
±á´Ç´Ú´Ú:ÌýWhat game was it that just had a miserable amount of video reviews? Florida? At least it wasn't that. But college basketball needs to sort out the use of the monitor. Last night's game was a fantastic one to watch until it got bogged down in the final four minutes. Maybe giving coaches challenges and leaving it at that would help. Then some of the constant harassment of refs and (sometimes rightful) complaints about significant calls being missed could be at least a little resolved.Â
It'll take more than last night to have me concerned with Tamar Bates' free-throw shooting. But yes, it is a concern at a macro level with this team. If they're in a situation where the other team is looking to intentionally foul, they're going to be able to go after some favorable shooters. Only Warrick, Allen and Bates are above 80% on the season, and the first two might not be on the floor in that context. Pierce, Mitchell and Gray are below 70%. Perhaps it will prove costly down the stretch, but for now I'd say it's mostly a red flag.
Florida Al:Â Hi Eli...thanks for the opportunity to chat. One apparent weakness for Mizzou offensively is the lack of midrange shooting on the team when teams do what TN did in the second half against Mizzou last night...effectively lock them down around the 3-point perimeter and force them inside. While we have a few non-big players that can convert from outside the rim, like Bates, Crews, Warrick, and Grill, those are also the players Gates would like to pose a saturated threat behind 3 which enhances the chance of getting one of them open. Pulling them into the middle might play into the opponents hands. The larger problem seems to be on the interior. Most opponents with athletic bigs don't mind the ball getting inside to Mitchell or Gray. Mitchell is athletic and can pose a threat in there as a scorer, but neither he nor Gray have good short jumpers and they shoot a lot of bricks from there. Once they try to score with their backs to the rim, opponents try to make sure they can't score at the rim and foul at will. Neither, especially Gray, is a good free throw shooter. Pierce could be a future answer, but probably not this year. Any thoughts?
±á´Ç´Ú´Ú:ÌýI agree. The offense is at its best when the guards are penetrating the paint and kicking the ball back out. The drive and kick flow is when the half-court offense really looks good, to my eyes anyway. Mitchell can accomplish some of that but Gray can't by nature. The guards getting down low can work off-ball, too. The "curl" action for Grill to come back out toward the 3-point line, cut around Gray/a big and take a handoff right into a 3 has been lethal.Â
Some of the driving from the guards looks different because there isn't a Sean East-type who can get to a midrange or floater at will. The guards have their stepback moves, and Warrick can twist his way into something workable, but they're not always hunting down a spot or two to get to. I do think monitoring Mitchell in the post is worthwhile, as is the use of drive-and-kick in this context.
¶Ù°ä³Ò:ÌýCompletely agree. Grill and Bates have shown consistency from 3. Pierce seemed to be there, but he's hit a 1 for 11 skid. But even so, between Pierce, Warrick, Robinson (who should shoot more), you have more solid 3 point guys, and then you have guys who can get hot--Crews and Perkins. So, that's a lot of depth, and the odds are on a given night, at least couple of them will get going, like we saw with Perkins at the open, Warrick in the middle of the UTenn game. The thing they're missing is a finisher with size. As we discussed, that's not Mitchell. That guy is not on this team. If were, well, they would be unguardable.
±á´Ç´Ú´Ú:ÌýYour last point there is really an appreciation of what Kobe Brown became. Imagine him in this team... it really is built to feature a big man with his skillset.Â
²Ñ²¹°ù°ì:ÌýWith the NIL in place,how much do players really make per year?
±á´Ç´Ú´Ú:ÌýIt's very rarely publicly/correctly revealed for any given player. Football players who see the field are certainly making enough to be comfortable, given that you see payrolls around $15-20 million there. Some are making a million-plus at big schools. Same for men's basketball players. Outside of those sports and the stars in them, the NIL deals are worth much less than you'd think. It's not like every athlete is getting rich these days.
¶Ù°ä³Ò:ÌýSpeaking of Kobe, I keep wondering what he would be doing in the NBA right now if my Nuggets had chosen him instead of Julian Strawther. I thought Kobe was a perfect fit for that team with his versatility, and Denver was committed to putting that draft pick in the rotation. So much of the NBA is about opportunity and fit, and I hate that he's languishing on bench for a mediocre Clippers team that really isn't a good fit for him.
±á´Ç´Ú´Ú:ÌýThat would be a great fit. He's someone who would benefit greatly from finding a spot in a rotation somewhere to get the adjustment to that level under his belt.Â
µþ´Ç²õ³Ù´Ç²Ô.²Ñ¾±³ú³ú´Ç³Ü:ÌýWhat’s your prediction on score for the superbowl
±á´Ç´Ú´Ú:ÌýWe'll end today's chat with this one. I say Chiefs win 28-24.
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