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Transcript

Eli ±á´Ç´Ú´Ú:ÌýGood morning everyone. Thanks for coming by this week's chat. From the basketball losing skid to spring football to the women's basketball search, we've got plenty to discuss. Let's get right to it.

²õ±ð²Ô¾±´Ç°ù²õ³¦°ù²¹³¾²ú±ô±ð:ÌýThanks for the chat so we can get rid of our frustrations. Do you think there is an internal problem with the men's basketball team. They have quit playing defense they don't block out and rebound well anymore. This isn't the same team anymore. Kentucky will if we don't give effort on defense will destroy us. I don't see another win this season., I still think we are in the dance as a 7th seed, but it will be one game. We don't protect the paint, downhill drives over and over. They have done better than most people have thought they would maybe they just peeked out. Gates has to be so upset with no defense it reminds me of his first 2 teams they were bad on defense and rebounding also. Women's team got out scored 31 to 0 that is unheard of. I wish coach P nothing but the best. She is a awesome person, not sure if she is a good coach because her teams the last few years didn't have overall sec. Talent. I hope they get a coach that can get SEC. talent. They need players that don't turn the ball over. I hope Judd and Slaughter stay with the right portal players Mizzou could be in the middle of the pack. Tennesse new coach got 3.7 million for 4 years Mizzou must offer that or more.

±á´Ç´Ú´Ú:ÌýI wasn't in Norman to hear him say this, but Caleb Grill seemed pretty blunt after the game in saying that Mizzou hasn't been hungry enough lately. It could be a few things (and I'm writing about this today, so you'll see this more fleshed out on the site tomorrow). It could be that other teams have figured out Mizzou and how to exploit a switch-heavy defense that is light on rim protection. It could be regression to the mean. Shots that were dropping before and bounces that went the Tigers' way are evening out. It could be fatigue setting in. It could be that the players bought into the hype and let their collective foot off the gas. The reality is that it is probably some combination of them. Regardless, it's a red flag and concern is valid. 

Kentucky is still a winnable game at home. And if Mizzou can't get fired up for that one — senior day, seeding on the line, some desperation oozing from the fanbase — then add that to the list of issues. Next week on a neutral floor will be telling, but at the same time, a short trip to Nashville could come with some benefits. I haven't looked at a whole bunch of bracketology updates this morning, but I think Mizzou is still on the 5/6 line. Now, that's worse than being on the 4/5 line a week ago. A loss to Kentucky probably makes that solidly a 6. But yes, this team has certainly regressed to playing like we thought they would a few months ago.

I had to double and triple check the stats as I was watching the women's game last night. For those who didn't see it, Mizzou was eliminated in the SEC Tourney by Mississippi State, which means the Pingeton era is officially over. The Tigers were up by 14 in the third quarter, and then MS State went on a 31 to 0 run. Oof.

Tomorrow I'm hoping to be able to talk with Laird Veatch about what he wants from the women's hoops program going forward. One of my key questions is about what they're willing to pay in a coach salary. Upwards of $1 million a year would be a steep increase, but we'll see what he says, if he says anything specific on that front. 

²ú¾±²µ°ù´Ç²Ô:ÌýA really disappointing loss last nite! When will the Bball team find out who if any players are opting out next year? When is the signing date for incoming transfers?

±á´Ç´Ú´Ú:ÌýThe transfer portal will be open for entries from March 24 (the Monday after the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament) until April 22. That's just the window to enter, so players could sign afterward. As is generally the case, guys know what they're going to do at the end of the year. Maybe some retention conversations won't happen until after the season is over, but anyone entering the portal will probably do so in the first week or two, and then you'll see most portal commitments around the first couple weeks of April. But of course that's up to individual players and programs and their timelines. 

²Ï³Ü±ð²õ³Ù¾±´Ç²Ô²õ:ÌýRegarding the MBB defense and points in the paint as you addressed in your article: So is it talent, scheme, effort, BB IQ, coaching, or what, that has led to the high failure rate?

±á´Ç´Ú´Ú:ÌýThat's the question. The answer is probably a combination of most of those. Some teams are certainly attacking switches. They'll get Josh Gray out on the perimeter and then go to work down low. Or a guard will rotate into the blocks and they'll feed the big in that mismatch. The other factor is some poor perimeter play. A lot of times when an opposing player has a full head of steam going into a layup, it's because he blew by a guard on the perimeter. It's unfair to expect the 5 to be responsible for his own man in the post and whoever the guards let through on any given possession. Sure, you want some help defense, but that just leads to easy buckets and foul trouble. 

Regardless of what caused it is the importance of Mizzou fixing it. OU scored its first 20 points in the paint. The Sooners took 55% of their shots at the rim last night, which is an insanely high number. The blueprint is out there and other teams are targeting this. At this point in the season, when after Saturday all that matters is who won and who lost, the cause doesn't matter all that much. It's about whether the Tigers can figure out the fix.

´³´Ç³ó²Ô³¢:ÌýGood morning Eli-My take is the Team and Coach fell in love with the 3-Game and for some reason thought we could shoot 60% from the field every game. Huh? The basics win games including, as you pointed out in good detail in your am article, DEFENSE, assists, turnovers, and rebounding! To that end, I believe Coach is playing Crews too many minutes. Plus, Grill's effectiveness is more EFFECTIVE with less minutes. Finally, Tamar's production has faded and Tony is highly inconsistent. Let's hope Coach straightens to focus ending in a home win vs. K. Please advise.

±á´Ç´Ú´Ú:ÌýThe offense has not been a problem at all lately. In the last five games, Mizzou's half-court offense has produced a 50% field goal percentage, which is the best in the nation. It really has been that good. The issue is that MU's defense is 364th out of 364 D-I teams in defending shots taken inside the paint in the last five games. Quite literally the worst in the country! It's such a disparity. 

Crews' shooting percentage has ticked upward lately, and he's shooting better across the last five games than his season average. For Grill, it has been the opposite. He takes a lot of shots that he can make, but more shots doesn't always lead to more points for him — you're right there.

And more broadly, the inconsistency you mention is really challenging this team. When Perkins isn't producing, Robinson is in foul trouble and Bates is having an off night, where does the backcourt go? When Mitchell needs a rest but Crews and Pierce don't look playable, where does the front court go? IT has felt to me during some recent second halves that the plethora of options has suddenly dwindled. A successful turnaround right now would mean more than just one player sorting things out. 

²Ñ²¹³æ:ÌýDid the officials review the shot clock violation at the start of the Vanderbilt game, or is there a reason they didn't? Also, why did Crews get so much more playing time over Allen and Warrick that game? I know he can get hot, but sometimes feels like he's more of a liability than asset, just determined to chuck up contested shots. Thanks for your work. Enjoy the articles and podcast.

±á´Ç´Ú´Ú:ÌýI don't believe the game was stopped for them to review it. Maybe it got a rolling review like how some 3-pointers do for a possible toe on the line, but I doubt that happened. Coaches don't have challenges, so there's no way to institute a review. To be honest, I'd forgotten about that play until you brought it up, given how much the final possessions dictated the talking points of that game. 

Crews does make sure to get hits shots when he's on the floor, but that's also his instruction. He and Grill are the two best shooters on the team in terms of ability, even if percentages change. That's the duo that Gates wants out there to let it fly. Allen is not a shooter. The Warrick usage has been spotty — some games he just gets more run than others. But the bottom line with Crews is that he was brought in to shoot and Gates is sticking with that philosophy, no matter how it looks. 

¶Ù°ä³Ò:ÌýI think you're overthinking the problem. Teams didn't figure out Mizzou's defense in a week. We saw this problem in the non-con season--they picked and chose when to play D. It was my biggest question about this season. At home, Mizzou takes the crowd energy and turns it into smothering defense. Earlier in the league season, they were doing that on the road as well (see Miss St.). But the intensity wasn't there vs Vandy or OU. At all. You can just see it in the body language, the lack of anticipation. There's lazy switching and there's aggressive switching. They have regressed to the latter on the road. They aren't suddenly tired after derailing Bama. I think there is a leadership issue, and expecting teams to just lay down for them and not realizing the desperation these bubble teams are coming with. But it's simply an effort thing. I don't think it's more complicated than that.

±á´Ç´Ú´Ú:ÌýThat's true, and I don't mean to undermine the effort aspect of playing defense. It's why the NBA playoffs are so much more fun than the regular season — all of a sudden, there's a ton more defensive buy-in. What interests me here is whether the role of effort/intensity in the defensive regression is a good or bad sign. Is it good because that means there's a level this team can get back to, if it wants, when the games become critical in a week? Or is it bad because at an important juncture of the season a real opportunity to get a top-4 seed in both tournaments slipped away because of effort? I don't think we can know the answer right now, but either way, in three weeks we'll be looking back at this stretch and relating it to the tournament performance.

°Õ·É¾±²õ³Ù±ð°ù18:ÌýI hear all sorts of names thrown around for the Mizzou women's basketball team. We have one of the best high school coaches in the nation in our backyard. Why not Dan Rolfe?

±á´Ç´Ú´Ú:ÌýYou're not the first person to throw out his name. There would be the hurdle of, at face value, an SEC program hiring a high school coach. Some people will look past any amount of winning at the high school level and fixate on that. It would be a massive, massive change for him. There's no doubt he's one of the best high school coaches in the country, it's just tough to imagine Mizzou looking for someone straight from that level — regardless of hardware won.

DCG (replying to JohnL's question above): I disagree with most of this post aside from the need to protect the ball better and play better D. The game now is about 3s. Look at the top teams--Duke, Florida, Bama--they all shoot more 3's than Mizzou, who shoots about as many/game as Auburn. I think ARob should be shooting more, as he's good at it, and it would open up drives more. It's obvious that teams are game planning against Grill and he's taking some forced 3's, and that's not good. Pierce's recent disappearance (again) is killing the team because he should benefit from the focus on Grill. I'd probably play Crews with Grill more as Crews would also benefit from better looks with all the focus on Grill. But having no one aside from Mitchell who can make team pay inside when they focus on the 3 point line is really hurting them lately.

±á´Ç´Ú´Ú:ÌýRobinson does have an ability to knock down pull-up jumpers (and the stepbacks) that does feel underutilized when teams play drop coverage against him. The key, as you allude to there, to Grill getting this treatment and missing more often is getting a second shooter online. Whether that's Crews, Pierce, Warrick, whoever doesn't matter as much as getting someone else to benefit from Grill's gravity. 

The Grill/Crews pairing has done well in SEC play, though. When those two are on the floor together, Mizzou has a +27.4 net rating. With Grill on and Crews off, it's +3.8. With neither of them on the floor, it's +4.2. Having more willing and capable shooters unlocks something!

²Ñ²¹³æ:ÌýAny reason on Allen's reduced usage? I know he never played a whole lot, but some games he's not even getting into (think he was the only player not to see the floor vs SC). Just thought he brought a level of toughness on the defensive end that they could use.

±á´Ç´Ú´Ú:ÌýI haven't asked about this, so it's my speculation, but I imagine it has something to do with the offensive end. During SEC play, MU's offensive rating drops by about 17 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor. A lot goes into that, but it's tough for him to have enough of a defensive impact to make up for it. Maybe the recent struggles change the incentive there, but that math is relevant.

²ú¾±²µ°ù´Ç²Ô:ÌýWhat kind of a player will Burns be if he ever plays, is he going to be a low post player or another 7 footer who thinks he's a 3 point shooter?

±á´Ç´Ú´Ú:ÌýTo be honest, I haven't seen enough of him to know. He's got a jumper and the goal is for him to have some degree of 3-point shooting and perimeter presence. Is that a "only when left open" degree or "funneling shot volume his way" degree? I don't know. Some of that depends on his development. He'll also probably need to bulk up a bit to hold up the post — though he'll certainly have a height advantage.

´³´Ç³ó²Ô³¢:ÌýWill Coach have a short-hook Saturday? Meaning swap-out players given recent challenges? Also, perhaps Zone more?

±á´Ç´Ú´Ú:ÌýThe zone is worth watching. It worked well against Vandy and seemed to fluster them, but it is a little opponent dependent. But I do think the leash has to shorten this time of year. There isn't time in a win-or-go-home game to let players figure it out. The guys who have it that day, have it. Those who don't, don't. One of the recent problems is that more seem to be in the latter category than the former, so even when Gates is cycling through 11, 12, 13 players, he's not finding much. I'm not sure if the rotation will slim down to 7-8 guys for the postseason run, given how crucial depth is to this roster build, but I imagine there will be quicker substitutions for bad sequences and a player hitting the bench and staying there will be more common.

³¾Âá³ó³Ù¾±²µ±ð°ù:ÌýI agree with DCG regarding Pierce. He just doesn’t seem to have the willingness to stick his body in the paint and get tough. At 6’10’ he shouldn’t be standing around on the outskirts of the paint. If he was scoring 20/game it might be another story, but, I think Crews or Allen are more willing to mix it up. That said, what’s the deal with Peyton Marshall. He’s 7’, 300 lbs. At the very least, he takes up space. Is there any reason that you know of as to why he’s not seeing more playing time?

±á´Ç´Ú´Ú:ÌýCrews and Allen are definitely more physical. Pierce seemed to bring that to the first couple minutes last night, then it went away. With Marshall, it's about adjusting to the speed and physicality of the SEC. Mizzou needed him and his build against Arkansas. He played four minutes and was called for four fouls. I don't think he played against Vandy, and I know he didn't play last night. The last thing Mizzou needs right now is another player who's going to come in and foul. So until/unless he's able to avoid that kind of performance, I don't know that he enters the fray unless absolutely necessary — a threshold you can certainly argue is either here or rapidly approaching. 

¶Ù°ä³Ò:ÌýSo, I think it's both good and bad just for what you said. I just think that when they are dialed in defensively, the can literally beat anybody, even if they aren't shooting well because they get such tempo from their D. Maybe the adrenaline of the tourney brings that back, but it is baffling how a team with so many upperclassmen can come out flat multiple time on the road.

±á´Ç´Ú´Ú:ÌýYeah. It's why my lasting takeaway from the last couple weeks is this... I said it during a radio segment after the Vandy game, and last night gave me no reason to change my mind. We knew this Mizzou team could certainly compete with any team in the country and probably beat any of them too. What we've learned is that this team can also lose to most teams. The ceiling hasn't changed, it's just that the floor is lower than previously assumed. The range of outcomes is now so much wider on both ends. 

¶Ù°ä³Ò:ÌýBy the way, on a completely different note, our man Luther's draft stock seems to have dropped heavily. I'm stunned. I've been reading late first and even second round projections. I can't figure out why teams wouldn't realize how much of the drop off this season was due just bad OC not getting him involved and so many missed throws by Cook downfield. Are you hearing anything Burden related?

±á´Ç´Ú´Ú:ÌýYour timing is impeccable. Just before the chat, I recorded a new podcast episode with Joe DeLeone, a draft analyst I've gotten to know who was out at the combine. We talked about this, among the other Burden/Membou/Cook storylines. 

He still thinks Burden will be the most productive WR in this draft class — just loves what he can do with the ball in his hands. But Joe's film study showed some imprecision in route running that'll be punished in the NFL. He's giving Burden a pass based on the context of this past season (Joe knows Missouri football pretty well, even if he's a national guy), but that doesn't necessarily extend to everyone. There's also the matter of how Burden does in meetings/interviews with teams, too. I don't keep up with that rumor mill, but that could be a factor in his slide as well.

³¾Âá³ó³Ù¾±²µ±ð°ù:ÌýWhats up with the softball team. Pretty disappointing!

±á´Ç´Ú´Ú:ÌýI admit to not having watched much of them yet since they've been all over the country and had to cancel the home opener this week, but it seems like the graduating production in the circle and at the top of the order hasn't quite been replaced — which was always going to be a tall task. Younger players are in a lot bigger roles at multiple positions. Maybe that takes time to settle in, but right now hosting a regional again would probably be a stretch. (Though maybe my knowledge of softball bracketology, which is basically nonexistent, is betraying me.)

We're going to call it a chat for today! Thanks to everyone who came by.

One quick programming note: We will not have a chat next week. I'll be spending next Thursday driving over to Nashville for the SEC tournament. There's a chance the NCAA Tournament the week after could mess with our schedule, too. Regardless, we'll have you covered on location at every game from here on out — and squeeze in a chat where we can. Cheers!

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