It’s been an unusually dry May around St. Louis — closing in on being the city’s driest in nearly 20 years and putting the area on the brink of drought, experts say.
“It is getting pretty close to the drought threshold,†said Brad Rippey, a drought analyst for the U.S. Department of Agriculture, who authored the most recent national map and report of the U.S. Drought Monitor.
The short-term weather forecast might not offer much relief from dryness. Hot conditions are expected to grip St. Louis through the rest of the week, with daily highs at or above 90 degrees, and temperatures that “remain upwards†of 10 degrees warmer than normal for early June, the NWS said.
Late May is usually the wettest time of year in the St. Louis area, according to the local forecast office of the National Weather Service. But as of Monday, the region’s 13-day stretch without measurable precipitation marked its longest May dry spell since 1988.
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Meanwhile, in terms of total precipitation, the area is on the verge of closing out its driest May since 2005, according to national experts like Rippey who monitor — and map — drought trends.
Thus far, the month has brought only 1.6 inches of measurable rainfall to St. Louis. That’s more than 3 inches below what the NWS considers normal for May, and the area’s lowest monthly total since the 0.78 inches received in 2005, Rippey said.
Around St. Louis, that dryness hasn’t reached official drought levels yet. Much of the area is still experiencing “abnormally dry†conditions, according . That designation immediately precedes varying levels of drought — from moderate to severe, extreme and exceptional.
The worst drought in the nation is currently centered over the Plains, where much of Kansas and parts of Nebraska are mired in “exceptional drought.†And some parts of central Missouri are also seeing elevated stages.
The spring’s dry conditions represent “a double-edged sword†for farmers, said Rippey. For instance, the lack of moisture has helped outfit growers with a stable window to access their fields and enabled a rapid pace of planting.
“But we’re just a week or two away from trouble,†Rippey warned, with his recent drought report describing regional crops’ looming needs for moisture, to ensure proper emergence and growth.
A statewide crop progress report issued Tuesday by the USDA said that 17% of Missouri topsoil moisture reports are already rated as “very short†with another 45% rated as “short.â€
Even if drought were to remain anchored over the Plains, but not Missouri itself, the St. Louis region still could see some impacts, through examples such as low Mississippi River levels, which are strongly influenced by the discharge from the Missouri River.
Although the coming days will bring chances for rain, “sadly, the isolated nature of the rain won’t be sufficient to alleviate the ongoing and slowly-degrading drought conditions,†the NWS said in its online forecast analysis.
Longer-term relief could be brewing, however. The NWS’ Climate Prediction Center said in that St. Louis and much of the Eastern U.S. were leaning toward a three-month period of above-average rainfall.
