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ST. LOUIS — After weeks of unrelenting rises in COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations, area health experts say infections finally are beginning to slow in parts of the St. Louis region.

The region’s hospitals on Tuesday reported a dip in COVID patient numbers for the sixth day in a row. Statewide, however, hospitalizations are near record levels. Taken together, the data suggest that parts of the metropolitan area are beginning to see improvements, while the wave persists in rural counties.

“We’re finally starting to see some good progress in our fight against omicron,� Dr. Alex Garza, chief community health officer for SSM Health and co-leader of the St. Louis Metropolitan Pandemic Task Force, said during a briefing Tuesday. “But we also know that we’re not out of the woods yet, and this is really no time to relax.�

Even if the dip continues, he said, the coming weeks will still strain hospitals, and residents will need to keep their guard up for some time.

The region’s health systems on Tuesday reported a total of 1,194 confirmed virus patients across area BJC HealthCare, Mercy, SSM Health and St. Luke’s Hospital facilities. While that is down from the record 1,444 reported on Jan. 17, it is still 24% above last winter’s peak of 962, according to the data from the St. Louis Metropolitan Pandemic Task Force.

Some area health experts, however, said they wanted to see another few days to a week of sustained decreases before declaring that the region is on the path to recovery from the surge. And they noted that with many people having asymptomatic infections, and home COVID-19 tests often left out of official tallies, infections are undercounted.

“Is it a false start or is it the real thing? Based on what we’ve been seeing in other parts of the country, we think it’s the real thing,� said Dr. William Powderly, a professor of medicine at Washington University School of Medicine and director of the school’s Division of Infectious Diseases.

“But in a few more days we’ll be able to make much more certain,� he added.

Doctors say precautions such as mask wearing are as critical as ever. Hospitals and emergency rooms are full of patients, and often short-staffed as employees get sick, or stay home to take care of loved ones. Medical workers from the U.S. Navy will arrive this week at BJC HealthCare’s Christian Hospital, the only one of 11 area hospitals to receive the emergency staffing it requested from the federal government.

“We’re still in a very vulnerable time for our health care systems, and for the people in the region. Especially the people that aren’t vaccinated,� Garza said.

Has omicron peaked here?

South Africa, one of the first countries to see omicron, was one of the first to begin reporting a , starting in late December. Experts have watched South Africa’s case rates decrease and hoped that the pattern would repeat itself elsewhere.

Then, in early January, the U.K. also began to report a .

Some parts of the western and southern United States still are seeing unrelenting cases and hospitalizations. And even South Africa’s case rates have not fully retreated to the levels seen before the surge.

But a handful of states in the Northeast and Midwest are seeing improvements. New York and New Jersey have seen significant declines in case rates. Illinois has seen some relief, though not as dramatic, with the state seven-day average of new cases declining to just over 24,000 on Tuesday, from 32,500 on Jan. 12.

“The challenge is that the entire country is not moving at the same pace,� U.S. Surgeon General Dr. Vivek Murthy said in a Jan. 16 on CNN. “The omicron wave started later in other parts of the country. So we shouldn’t expect a national peak in the next, coming days. The next few weeks will be tough.�

In Missouri, case rates still are rising, according to the New York Times, and every single county in the state remains in the for transmission, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Most of the St. Louis region’s outlying counties are marking increases, some of them dramatic: Washington County saw case rates rise nearly 150% in the past two weeks, and St. Francois County saw a roughly 70% increase.

But St. Louis, St. Louis County and St. Charles County have seen daily average case rates decline by between 20% and 50% over the same period, according to the Times.

Powderly, the Washington U professor, said it appears that the St. Louis metro area is about a week to 10 days behind the East Coast. Outstate Missouri is likely a few weeks behind that.

Dr. Stephen Liang, an associate professor of medicine at Washington University and an infectious diseases and emergency medicine physician at Barnes-Jewish Hospital, said seven of 14 patients under his care on Monday had COVID-19.

“We are still just below the peak,� Liang said.

‘There are no guarantees in this’

Some believe the virus that causes COVID-19 gradually will evolve to cause less and less severe illness. Experts think that’s possible. But they aren’t sure.

“I think what would be a huge mistake is if people got the message that ‘the virus is going to become harmless, and therefore I don’t need a vaccine.’ I think it’s more like, ‘the virus will become less harmful, mostly because you got a vaccine,’� said Dr. Elvin Geng, a professor of infectious diseases at Washington University.

But if vaccinations, worldwide, continue to increase, case rates probably will settle down, Powderly said.

That said, there is no guarantee that another wave won’t come, he added.

And even when case rates drop, experts caution: Keep your masks on hand. Wear them when you’re sick, traveling, or when COVID (or flu) rates are up.

“If it rains, you’re going to bring an umbrella,� Liang said.

Geng also predicted that public health measures will advance. Nasal vaccines and more antiviral drugs may become available. Access will improve.

“All these little things will add up, to where we, I think, can sort of live and manage with it,� Geng said.