ÁñÁ«ÊÓƵ

ST. LOUIS — Projections for the spread of the coronavirus in the St. Louis area have improved slightly compared with surging numbers last month, health officials said on Monday.

Last week, officials estimated hospitalizations would return to peak levels by late August. But on Monday, Dr. Alex Garza, head of the St. Louis Metropolitan Pandemic Task Force, said the rate of new infections has slowed a bit, leading the task force to predict a return to spring peaks in September instead.

“The curve is starting to turn down — it’s becoming a lot more flat compared with last week, which is a good thing,� Garza said in a news briefing. “Hopefully we can continue to flatten this curve with a decrease in transmission. But this is where we are right now.�

Total COVID-19 hospitalizations in the region peaked at 757 confirmed and suspected cases in late April. Numbers fell to around 200 at the end of June, following earlier stay-at-home orders. But last month, patient counts surged again.

Hospitalizations continued to rise last week, but the rate of increase slowed. The 7-day average for total hospitalizations for patients with confirmed COVID-19 cases has risen by 3% in the last seven days, compared with a 7% increase the week before and a 30% increase the previous week.

The number of patients in intensive care beds and on ventilators has remained stable through July, but those figures increased slightly in the past few days, Garza said.

About 8% of intensive care beds and 6% of total hospital beds are today occupied by COVID-19 patients. The task force set a threshold of 10% in both measures to remain at the lowest risk of becoming overwhelmed, Garza said.

“Although we’ve seen some glimmers of hope,� he said. “We still have a large amount of virus circulating in our community and that won’t go away overnight.�

Garza said he remains concerned about the 7-day average of new daily admissions of COVID-19 patients in the area, which was at 42 Monday after a spike of more than 50 on Saturday.

The task force considers any number above 40 to be a rapid rate of new admissions.

The rate of case counts in the St. Louis region also showed some improvement this week, according to county health department figures.

The 7-day average for new daily cases in St. Louis County fell Monday by 13% compared with the week before and dropped in St. Louis City by about 5%, though numbers in both areas are still more than double averages at the end of June.

The daily case average rose slightly in St. Charles County, which has been adding around 100 new cases a day since mid-July. Jefferson County rose to 50 new daily cases on Monday from an average of 40 last week.

In Metro East, average daily case counts stayed about the same in Madison County this week, but increased by about 11% in St. Clair County.

The county’s averages include:

• ST. LOUIS COUNTY: The county reported a 13% decrease in daily case counts from July 27 to August 3. Some of the decrease could be caused by a backlog of more than 17,000 test results that were sent to the county over three days last week by Total Access Urgent Care, according to county officials. Still, the county’s 7-day average for new daily cases on Monday was 281, compared with around 80 in early July. The county 13,474 total cases on Monday and 650 total COVID-19 deaths.

• ST. LOUIS CITY: The 7-day average for new daily cases in the city fell by about 4.7% from July 26 to August 2, but is still up by 31% from mid-July, going from an average of 68 daily cases July 20 to 89 on Sunday. The city had reported 4,524 total cases and 169 COVID-19 deaths by Sunday.

• ST. CHARLES COUNTY: The 7-day average for new daily cases rose by about 2% over the last week to 97 by Sunday. The county’s average has fluctuated between about 90 to 100 since mid-July, but was adding only around 15 cases per day in late June. The county has reported 3,694 cases and 97 total COVID-19 deaths.

• JEFFERSON COUNTY: The 7-day average rose by about 25% over the last week, to 50 from 40. The county has stayed at that level since mid-July, but up from the 11 new cases on average in late June. The county has reported 1,469 cases and 25 total COVID-19 deaths.

• ST. CLAIR COUNTY: St. Clair County’s 7-day average rose 11% over the last week, to 69 from 62 new cases a day. Those numbers are still nearly triple average case counts of around 30 to 40 seen in the county at the beginning of the month. The county has reported 4,015 and 155 deaths.

• MADISON COUNTY: The 7-day average for new daily cases stayed about the same over the last week, going from an average of 52 to 51 cases per day. Case counts are still up significantly from averages of around 15 per day at the beginning of the month.

Missouri’s case load rose 1,047 to 52,887 on Monday. State health officials also announced 2 deaths, pushing the total to 1,255.

ÁñÁ«ÊÓƵ on Monday ranked 12th in the U.S. for new cases in the last 7 days, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

While the St. Louis and Kansas City areas make up the majority of cases, the rate of cases by population has been higher in recent weeks in some of Missouri’s rural areas.

For example, Crawford County, where crowded float trips are continuing on the Huzzah River, saw a 45% increase in cases over the last 7 days, to 55 from 17, according to state figures.

Robert Tung, from Fayetteville, Arkansas, said crowds were “� in some parts of a six mile stretch he kayaked on Saturday.

“Every gravel bar was practically full from end to end,� Tung said.

Ozark Outdoors Riverfront Resort manager Tera Bass said demand is high now.

“No one wants to be in the city,� Bass said Monday.

Honor Evans, administrator for the Crawford County Health Department, said the county follows state guidance on coronavirus precautions.

Missouri Gov. Mike Parson has yet to enact a state-wide mask mandate.

Sarah Teague, of the Post-Dispatch, contributed to this report.