Tipsheet figured the Chicago Cubs would win the National League Central this season after wooing manager Craig Counsell from the Milwaukee Brewers.
With the Brewers depleted and presumably downcast, the Cardinals reeling after their last-place finish and the Cincinnati Reds and Pittsburgh Pirates are in the middle of eternal rebuilds, the Cubs had a clear path back to the top.
Given the vast financial resources of the Ricketts family, there should have been no stopping the Small Bears. Surely, Tipsheet reasoned, they would do whatever it took to secure the division title just sitting there, waiting to be had.
Ah, but they didn’t. The Brewers ran away with the NL Central instead, The Cubs mustered make a late push, but it was too little, too late to get back into the NL wild card race.
That has put the spotlight on Counsell, who has failed to inspire much confidence from the fans on Chicago’s North Side.
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Writing for The Athletic, Patrick Mooney assessed the state of things:
The sport’s highest-paid manager has been mostly pleased with the team’s clubhouse dynamics and resolute attitude and the emergence of young talent. But those areas weren’t really issues when president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer shockingly fired David Ross last November and signed Counsell to a five-year, $40 million contract that stunned the Milwaukee Brewers and the entire baseball industry.
No two teams are exactly alike, but (Jed) Hoyer’s front office brought back a largely similar group of personnel to work with a different manager, hoping to squeeze more out of the 83-win team that missed last year’s playoffs by one game. The 2024 Cubs were supposed to win more one-run games (21-27), figure out the bullpen faster (24 blown saves) and peak at the right time (6-7 in September). It sounded good in theory.
Does it feel like the Cubs are building something here? Can the process be that sound when the results aren’t there? What truly matters now when everyone starts next season at zero? Counsell isn’t prepared to answer those types of questions yet: “I don’t want to send a message that we’re done when we’re not done.â€
Fair enough. There will be plenty of time to analyze why Counsell’s old team has spent every day since the end of April in first place. The Cubs’ ownership group and business executives surely must be wondering why the Brewers still controlled the National League Central even with their small-market payroll.
The Cubs, like the Cardinals, are headed toward an interesting offseason after letting the budget-minded Brewers show them up.
TALKIN’ BASEBALL
Here is what folks have been writing about Our National Pastime:
Buster Olney, : “Skip Schumaker's contract is set to expire at the end of this season, and he is leaving the Miami Marlins. Schumaker's reputation has been enhanced over his two years with the Marlins, and there is a lot of industry speculation that he might prefer to oversee a West Coast team in his next managerial gig. But he doesn't have the career longevity of someone like Bruce Bochy, A.J. Hinch or Cora, so his name could pop up with any opening that develops.”
Ken Rosenthal, The Athletic: “The party line for the Los Angeles Dodgers is that there isn’t one way to win a World Series. The 2023 Texas Rangers became champions pitching Max Scherzer at less than full strength in Game 3 and Andrew Heaney in Game 4. The 2021 Atlanta Braves did it going with bullpen games in Games 4 and 5. The Dodgers, even without Tyler Glasnow and all of their other injured starting pitchers, figure that Jack Flaherty and Yoshinobu Yamamoto and whoever else they start in the postseason will be sufficient, and that their offense, defense and bullpen might be good enough for them to prevail over a wide-open field. Maybe they’re right. But at this point, what else can they say? Considering the decimated state of their rotation, it would be one of the most baseball things ever if this was the year the Dodgers overcame their October demons and won their first World Series in a full season since 1988. A third straight Division Series knockout, however, would appear just as likely. And wouldn’t it be the most Dodgers thing ever if they rolled out Clayton Kershaw and his aching toe to get swept in Game 3? The latest blow to the rotation, the loss of Glasnow to a sprained right elbow, was not exactly a shock. Glasnow, 31, has never been a picture of durability. Past injuries are the best predictor of future breakdowns. The Dodgers knew when they acquired Glasnow from the Tampa Bay Rays for right-hander Ryan Pepiot and outfielder Jonny DeLuca, then awarded him a five-year, $136.5 million contract, that they were taking a gamble.â€
Bob Nightengale, USA Today: “The Tigers’ decision to dump Jack Flaherty for a modest prospect package from the Dodgers may haunt them all winter. While Flaherty has emerged as the ace of the Dodgers’ staff, the Tigers can’t help but wonder if the trade cost them a legitimate shot to make the playoffs.â€
Matt Sussman, Baseball Prospectus: “We are in the throes of September, meaning there has to be something interesting in the American League. As it turns out, it’s the stiff competition for the third Wild Card spot, a sentence that should not be read while operating heavy machinery. It possibly shouldn’t be read at all, but let’s try. It seems no team in the vicinity has played like they wanted that spot. As a result, a new team has entered the chat, a team that has been below .500 for most of the summer and has literally been in fourth place in their division since May 3 (and still is). Said team read the tea leaves in July, traded away four veterans and released a fifth. You thought they were immolating? ÁñÁ«ÊÓƵ were just molting. You misheard them. Since August 10, the Detroit Tigers have possessed the league’s best record, which is 22-11, a record which is nothing historic—basically every other team in contention has had such a run—but they are doing it with the backwash of their Triple-A stars who were called up simply to compete for spots in 2025.â€
Thomas Harrigan, : “Thanks to the emergence of rookie righty Tobias Myers and the acquisitions of Aaron Civale and Frankie Montas on the trade market, the Brewers’ rotation looks a lot different now than it did at the beginning of the season. The two constants throughout 2024? Opening Day starter Freddy Peralta and (Colin) Rea, a 33-year-old righty who made just 10 MLB appearances across 2017-22 before reviving his big-league career a year ago. Rea’s recent struggles have inflated his overall ERA, but the veteran deserves credit for helping the Brewers build a sizable lead in the National League Central, having gone 12-4 with a 3.61 ERA over his first 25 appearances (22 starts) this season.”
Jake Mailhot, FanGraphs: “The Phillies went 5-1 last week, dealt a blow to the playoff hopes of the Mets, and reclaimed the best record in baseball. Their seven-game road trip through Milwaukee and Queens this week is their last big hurdle before the playoffs, and they’ll probably have the NL East locked up in just a few days. Mostly, though, they’ll be looking to earn the top seed in the NL over the next two weeks while ensuring they get to October as healthy and prepared as they can be.â€
Dayn Perry, : “The Brewers and Phillies are each heavy favorites to clinch their respective divisions, which means this particular series may have seeding implications. To remind you of how this goes, the top two seeds in each league — i.e., the two division winners with the best records – are rewarded with a first-round bye past the Wild Card Series and into the Division Series. The Braves' incessant mewling from a year ago (and into this year) notwithstanding, that's a big advantage. Right now, the Phillies and Los Angeles Dodgers are narrowly pacing that race, but the Brewers can change the outlook of things if they sweep or even win this ongoing series against Philly.”
MEGAPHONE
“He can't control what happens on the other side of the ball. And the days that he's pitched, you know, and he's pitched well here, we just haven't gotten any runs.â€
Pirates manager Derek Shelton, after Paul Skenes suffered his second loss to the Cardinals.