COLUMBIA, Mo. — Missouri seems to have figured out who its hot hand will be.
The No. 7 Tigers have, as expected, opened the 2024 season with a committee approach at running back. The plan, dating back to spring ball, was to use transfers Nate Noel and Marcus Carroll as the two leads, giving more touches to whichever tailback was having the better day.
As the preseason wound down, Noel emerged as the likely “1A” running back. Still, the two split carries fairly evenly through the two blowout victories that opened the campaign.
Saturday’s win over Boston College showed that it’s Noel who has earned early season hot-hand status.
He took 22 carries for 121 yards against the Eagles, including four runs of 13 or more yards. Through three games, Noel has 45 rushes for 242 yards, two touchdowns and a two-point conversion he scored against BC.
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“He got really hot on the outside zone, and he’s just got so much experience carrying that play, we felt like it was going to be an outside zone game,” coach Eli Drinkwitz said. “That’s where we were going with him.”
That Noel settled into running that particular play is notable and positions him to be the main option in the backfield going forward. Zone runs — where running backs make a read on where the crease is in an offensive line that’s generally blocking in one direction, as opposed to targeting a pre-determined hole in a gap play — are a vital part of Mizzou’s offense.
According to SECStatCat’s play-call tracking, the Tigers have run outside zone 55 times through three games, making up 23.5% of all plays. It’s their most commonly used scheme, with the next-highest — inside zone reads — coming up 24 times. Combined, zone variations account for more than one-third of MU’s offensive plays.
Outside zone in particular has been working just as much as it has been called. Missouri has picked up 302 yards through that scheme, which is about 21% of its total yard share.
That scheme worked especially well against Boston College, yielding 113 yards on 21 attempts — or 5.4 yards per play.
“We got our outside zone working,” Drinkwitz said.
Noel credited the Tigers offensive line for making his reads easy.
“I was smiling going through the holes,” he said, “like, ‘Oh my, I got all this space.’ I was thinking of my next moves, really. It was nice.”
Part of Noel’s appeal out of the transfer portal was his comfort in zone schemes dating back to his time at Appalachian State — and even before it. While still in high school, the running back watched Drinkwitz’s offense there before the coach left App State for MU.
“That was really the offense I was looking forward to,” Noel said during the preseason.
So far, he’s been among the nation’s most prolific zone runners this season. With the caveat that teams have played very different strengths of opponents in their first three games and some, like Noel, have been able to sit out portions of games that became blowouts, the Mizzou tailback is tied for 13th in the nation for most zone runs so far this season.
According to Pro Football Focus, Noel has run on 33 zone plays to just nine gap situations. The only Southeastern Conference back with more zone reps is South Carolina’s Raheim “Rocket” Sanders.
For his part, Carroll has also showed that he’s a capable zone runner. When he’s in the game, though, MU tends to be more balanced with which blocking schemes it dials up: Carroll has run 18 zone plays to 13 gap sets, which is far tighter than Noel’s ratio.
Carroll, expected to be more of a bruising back, played a “1B” role against Boston College. He took 12 carries for 57 yards, stacking rushing attempts on key drives.
“Marcus did a really good job getting his shoulders down,” Drinkwitz said.
As a duo, Noel and Carroll are both in the top 13 SEC running backs in terms of rushing attempts — Missouri is the only program in the 16-team conference with that distinction.
At this point, on-field indications are that Noel will continue to get more work than Carroll does, though the Tigers have left themselves some wiggle room.
“It’s going to be whoever fits the strengths the most,” Drinkwitz said. “Hot hand, scheme decision, whatever.”
And if that gives Noel hot hand status for now, he’ll take it.
“I appreciate it. I definitely do,” he said. “That’s what I came here for: I came here to be a hot hand. I came here to just do what I can do to help the team. But also, all the running backs, we all have our roles.”