Bring your Tigers football, basketball and recruiting questions, and talk to Eli Hoff in a live chat at 11 a.m. Thursday.
Transcript
Eli ±á´Ç´Ú´Ú:ÌýHowdy all, and happy Thursday. Preseason camp is just a few days away. In less than a month, there will be actual (Week Zero) college football games to talk about. It's almost here... But in the meantime, I'll take your questions, comments and whatever else you've got for the next couple of hours.
³¢°ä:ÌýWhat record will it take to make the playoff? 10-2? Will 9-3 have a chance? How many SEC teams and how many Little Ten teams would you project in the 11 spots?
±á´Ç´Ú´Ú:ÌýFor Mizzou specifically, 10-2. That should be pretty safe in a vacuum for an SEC team, but MU could be a bit of an exception. There's no secret that Missouri's schedule is as favorable as an SEC slate can be. If those losses are, say, Alabama and Texas A&M, that seems understandable, but then the resume is probably not super strong. Oklahoma at home would be the best win. Not many of the other games on the schedule are going to move the needle. If there are a handful of 10-2 teams, that could bump Mizzou from the bubble — but I think it's still probably enough. 11-1 is obviously in. The same scheduling point goes for 9-3 with this season. I don't see how any wins could make a strong enough resume to compensate for three losses to this schedule.
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If you look at the 12-team playoff, at least three spots are off the table: one to the G5 representative, one to the Big 12 champ, one to the ACC champ. The SEC and Big Ten will be cheering for the highest ranked B12/ACC teams to win their championship games because then those conferences only have one representative each. But if a 20th-ranked team beats a 7th-ranked team in one of those title games, that conference probably gets two teams in and that messes with what the two powerhouse leagues want.
That makes me think there will be eight, maybe nine spots available for the SEC and Big Ten. It probably goes to four apiece and if it's nine, five to whichever fifth-place team the committee likes more. It's tough to see one conference getting half (six) of the CFP field, but I guess possible. Still, I'm sticking with thinking 4-5 for each of those two leagues.
Tiger Boz:ÌýIf the media is correct and Missouri finishes six in the SEC standings I don't see a path to the playoffs? Also, if the team does better than that and is in the conversation for a playoff berth might the "soft" schedule potentially hurt them if other teams have same record?
±á´Ç´Ú´Ú:ÌýExactly. The schedule is an advantage if Missouri uses it to go a calm 10-2 or 11-1. In any other scenario, it's probably what keeps the Tigers out. It's a softer end to the schedule in particular, so it's not like there's room for a statement win near the time the committee will be crafting its 12-team field. There's probably an argument that MU would benefit from blowing out its early season games to show that it didn't just beat the teams in front of it but dominated them. Then the Tigers can argue that they got the best possible results from the schedule given to them by the SEC.
It's tough to see the SEC (or Big Ten) getting six teams in. That would mean the other of those two conferences only gets three.
And that's why the TBD SEC tiebreakers are so vital to Missouri. The only team in the projected top six that Mizzou plays is Alabama. There's no opportunity for head-to-head tiebreaker position against Georgia, Texas, Ole Miss, LSU or Tennessee this year. There's going to be some real confusion looking at the standings as the year goes on and figuring out the implications. Wouldn't shock me if the last SEC spot in the CFP is determined by whichever tiebreaker separates fourth from fifth from sixth in the standings.
TigerBoz:ÌýHow big is the game at Texas A&M?
±á´Ç´Ú´Ú:ÌýVery. It might be the difference between 11-1 and 10-2, which might be the difference between a home playoff game and sweating selection to then go play on the road somewhere. It's too early to know that for sure, of course, but it's also easy to see a scenario in which that's the case. Taking CFP implications out of it, that'll be this team's first road game. Last year, it was a little bit gentler road escalation: first a "home" game in St. Louis, then Vanderbilt, then more typical SEC atmospheres. You're ripping the band-aid off by going straightaway to Kyle Field. That game should be this team's first real test of the season.
°Õ¾±²µ²µ²µ±ð°ù¹ó²¹²Ô:ÌýEli: Who’s replacing the thicker kicker this year and what is his background?
±á´Ç´Ú´Ú:ÌýBlake Craig will step in as the kicker. I'll write more about him during preseason camp, but he was around for last year as a redshirt. He handled the kickoffs during a few games that the team didn't feel like Mevis was prepared for. As a high school prospect, Craig was ranked the No. 2 kicker in his class, so he has the good billing. I've seen a practice clip out there of him hitting from, uh, Mevis range...Ìý
°Õ³ó±ð±Ê²¹²õ³Ù´Ç°ù:ÌýThe Tiger's offense looks strong, even with new running backs. But how about the defense? How is this year's defense expected to compare to last year's defense?
Hoff:ÌýI was talking about this on the radio with a station in Birmingham this morning. From a personnel level, quite different. There will be a new DE, DT, two new CBs, a new S and maybe a new LB as well — plus more newcomers in the rotational spots as well. In terms of talent, it might be tough to evaluate at first. It's not like Murray State or Buffalo will (or should) test a defense much. Maybe Boston College has some wrinkles, but same there. Vanderbilt is Vanderbilt. There are fair questions about what this defense can be, but I don't know if any real answers will emerge until the Texas A&M.
°Õ¾±²µ²µ±ð°ù´Ú²¹²Ô:ÌýThoughts on Johnnie Walker? Surprised he didn’t receive more pre-season accolades!
±á´Ç´Ú´Ú:ÌýJohnny Walker was the Cotton Bowl MVP, so there was that, but I think he was largely overshadowed by Darius Robinson last year. That shouldn't be the case this time around. That said, Walker wasn't even on the ballot for preseason All-SEC. So in that particular case, it's not that people didn't vote for him — it's that they couldn't.
J.L. from STL:ÌýCurious to hear your evaluation of Marques Johnson, Mekki Miller and Joshua Manning and if you see one of them stepping up and pushing for more playing time.
Hoff: I'll be keeping an eye on all three during camp. For Marquis Johnson, the speed is obviously there at a very high level. But what else can he add to the route tree that gives him more looks beyond just gos. Mekhi Miller had his moments but also had some injuries last year. Consistency is probably the key for him. And there just hasn't been a big sample of Joshua Manning in games yet. If and when those looks come, what does he do with them? Opportunities will be scarce so little things will be a big deal. The question for all three, of course, is what they can bring that Luther Burden, Theo Wease and Mookie Cooper don't — or why they should be the ones to play in the occasional four-WR set or when one of the main three sits out a play.
TigerBoz: The team stayed relatively healthy last season and reaped the benefits. Whom on both sides of the ball can they least afford to lose for any period of time? Despite the obvious talents of Burden, it's Cook for me on offense and I'll take suggestions on defense.
Hoff: Agreed on Cook. You could also point to the offensive line. All five starters were healthy for every single game last year. How often does that happen in any level of football? Defensively, it's probably about what positions are thinnest. There are only so many viable DTs on the roster, so losing someone like Kristian Williams probably hurts that. Cornerback will also be a bit thin, so losing Drey Norwood or Toriano Pride would hurt there. Maybe a high-end playmaker will emerge during camp that changes the math on defense, but for now I think it's about depth.
²Ñ²¹°ù°ì:ÌýA number of SEC schools recently canceled non-conference games to get to three non-conference games in their future schedules. (Prepping for a 9-game SEC season perhaps?). Mizzou has 4 non-conference games booked for most seasons heading into the 2030’s. If they need to cut some off the schedule, who may be most likely?
±á´Ç´Ú´Ú:ÌýI don't think this is the answer most people want to hear, but it's the power conference opponents — like Kansas — that would seemingly be at risk. (Unless they're still required to have one of those in noncon play even with 9 SEC games, of course.) Why play a school like that when you could get Middle Tennessee or Buffalo or Central Michigan? Now, the optics of either Mizzou or KU pulling out of that series could be a hold-up, or maybe they both want to make it happen. That's just where in a big picture sense I'd guess programs make cuts to future schedules.
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